SALT LAKE CITY — With just over a month left in the 2025-2026 NBA regular season, the Utah Jazz sit at 19-45 with eyes on the draft lottery in May.
However, a top-8 protection on Utah’s first-round pick adds an extra bit of pressure that otherwise wouldn’t be there. Are the Jazz at risk of falling to ninth and falling out of the draft entirely?
Here are where the lottery odds stand with just over a month left in the regular season.
Assuming no movement, less than a 1% chance that OKC gets the No. 9 overall pick from the Jazz. pic.twitter.com/zmWvwoOxYX
— Chandler Holt (@CHoltSports) March 8, 2026
The Current Lottery Landscape
With the fifth-worst record in the association currently, the odds are heavily in Utah’s favor to keep their pick with only a 0.6 percent chance it falls to ninth and conveys to Oklahoma City.
Even though the worst-case scenario hit the Jazz in last year’s lottery, there was still a near-48 percent chance of that happening. So the situation is very different.
That said, the franchise isn’t out of the woods just yet. Falling to sixth would bump those odds to almost four percent, and dropping another spot to seventh would see an over 14 percent chance they lose the pick.
“We’re all excited about the future and what we’re building.”
A message from Coach Hardy 💜#TakeNote pic.twitter.com/Cwpc00sIeO
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) March 8, 2026
On Utah’s tail are three franchises: New Orleans (20 wins), Dallas (21 wins), and Memphis (23 wins).
The good news is that the Pelicans don’t have their own first-round pick and have no reason to lose games, and the four-win cushion from the Grizzlies should theoretically be enough to keep them at arm’s length. Utah also plays each of those teams once more in the final 18 games, and a loss could go a long way to keep them at bay.
However, the Mavericks could cause a real headache. Dallas has won just two games since the start of February, while Utah has won four.
In the other direction, Utah has three more wins than the next-worst team, and even that could prove to be too much ground to make up with less than 20 games left on the schedule.
What To Expect Before April 13
The franchise’s 52nd NBA season will come to a conclusion after the April 12 matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers. Before then, it’s almost a guarantee that there will be a handful of nail-biting results.
The first could come as soon as next week, as the Sacramento Kings host Utah on Sunday, March 15. In the last matchup between the Kings and the Jazz, Utah walked away with a blowout 121-93 win.
10 days later, Utah hosts Washington at the Delta Center. Given that the Jazz’s most recent win was over the Wizards, a series sweep is absolutely in the cards.
Two of the final three games of the season are against New Orleans and Memphis. With other games against near-.500 teams like Portland and Golden State, Utah could be looking at anywhere from two to five wins in the final month.
Because no movement is basically guaranteed not to happen, let’s take a look at the standings.
Both Memphis and Dallas have a tougher strength of schedule down the stretch.
Would be very tough for Utah to catch any of the bottom four teams. They do play WAS and SAC though. pic.twitter.com/XZ4pJP4QSa
— Chandler Holt (@CHoltSports) March 8, 2026
The Jazz won six games in the month of December. A repeat of that, or even half of that, is unlikely. Especially if the Jazz drop some of the key games against teams in their airspace, standing pat where they are looks on paper to be the most likely outcome.
Other Noteworthy Games
Of course, Utah isn’t the only team left with games that hold lottery implications.
Memphis hosts Dallas on Thursday, March 12. A Mavericks win in that game would inherently benefit the Jazz.
Beyond that, the interconnected schedules will guarantee a chaotic final month: the Grizzlies still have a game against the Nets, while the Mavericks have looming matchups against both the Pelicans and Bulls.
New Orleans is the ultimate wildcard, playing both Sacramento and Washington. A Pelicans win over the Kings, combined with a loss to the Wizards, could set up a dramatic finish for the league’s fourth-worst record between Washington and Utah.
The point is, there is a lot to watch as the season heads toward a conclusion. For fans who find themselves rooting for better lottery odds, and by association, Utah Jazz losses, don’t let your head spin over a negative result here and there.
At the end of the day, the ping pong balls will tell the full story in May.
Follow the Utah Jazz with KSL Sports
All Jazz games will be broadcast live on the KSL Sports Zone (97.5 FM/1280 AM). Occasionally, KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM / 1160 AM) will also pick up games.
Utah Jazz fans can watch the team’s games next season for free over the air on KJZZ TV and can stream the games through a paid streaming-based platform on the team’s website. KJZZ is currently broadcast on channel 14.1.
Find all of our Utah Jazz coverage here.
Chandler Holt is a co-host of theJazz Notes podcast, a Locals In The NFL Insider, and Digital Sports Producer forKSLSports.com. FollowChandler on Xfor Utah Jazz and Locals In The NFL updates.
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