“The Colts’ initial offer to Jones was in the range of Sam Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million deal last offseason,” writes Breer. “Jones’s camp countered that, based on the leverage a franchise tag would have given him, a deal worth $50 million per year would be more in the ballpark of what he’d take if he did a deal before this week.”
“So rather than franchise Jones, the Colts put the transition tag on him. And here we are.”
“I do believe Jones wants to be in Indianapolis. He’s rehabbing from a torn Achilles that is going to cost him most, if not all, of his offseason. Given that, it seems obvious that his best chance to have a great 2026 would be in a familiar place, where he doesn’t have to learn a new offense or new teammates. That, of course, is Indianapolis.”
“What, then, would motivate the Colts to do a deal, rather than have Jones play on the $37.833 million tender? Here’s what: If Jones plays great in 2026, then the team would either transition him again in ’27 at $45.4 million or franchise him, and at that point, he’d have the leverage to ask for top-of-the-market money, since a third tag is prohibitively expensive. That doesn’t mean the Colts have to pay him $50 million per year now. However, it does mean that it’d behoove them to explore a longer-term deal.”
“The benefit for Jones would be having a chance to really build something with his teammates in Indianapolis and, if they can get a deal done fast enough, giving the Colts a chance to bring Pierce back into a skill group that has Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren and Josh Downs on hand.”
“So, the best thing for everyone is to hammer out a deal on Monday morning. We’ll see.”