Brentford majority shareholder Matthew Benham suggested weight should attributed to the opportunities a striker gets - at least when looking at whether to take a chance on him
Beto looks on during the Premier League match between Everton and Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Photo by Richard Martin-Roberts - CameraSport via Getty Images
Beto looks on during the Premier League match between Everton and Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Photo by Richard Martin-Roberts - CameraSport via Getty Images
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The football club owner who spotted the talent of serial Premier League goalscorers from Ivan Toney to Bryan Mbuemo has set out why he would judge Beto on more than just goals.
Matthew Benham is one of the key figures behind Brentford’s remarkable rise from the lower leagues to the top flight - where they are now battling with the Blues for a spot in Europe next season.
That progress has been underscored by his expertise in statistics - and the club’s subsequent use of data when exploring the transfer market for value. In a far-reaching interview he offered his opinion on Beto, who has just returned to the Everton starting line-up after a difficult season to date.
Benham, the founder and owner of Smartodds, a statistical research company, became involved in Brentford, where he is the majority shareholder, back in 2012 when the club was in League One.
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The Bees’ push up the pyramid has been underpinned by their work in the transfer market - notable successes including goalkeeper David Raya, signed from Blackburn Rovers for £4m before being sold to Arsenal for £30m. The most emphatic turnarounds have been up front, however - just last summer the potent strike force of Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbuemo were sold for combined fees of around £160m. Brentford plucked both from relative obscurity for less than £15m in total.
This season, the Bees have defied expectations of a relegation fight after their departure, and that of manager Thomas Frank, to sit in seventh, one place and one point above Everton. They have achieved that largely through the goals of their latest find, Igor Thiago, who grabbed three of his 18 league goals at Hill Dickinson Stadium in January.
Thiago’s form is in stark contrast to that of Everton forwards Thierno Barry and Beto, though the pair now have 10 goals between them.
The lack of ruthlessness up front has proved costly this season but, for Benham, judging a striker is not solely down to finishing - at least not when considering whether they deserve a chance at a higher level.
Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, he said: "For a striker, getting in position is way more informative than finishing. There is an awful amount of randomness in finishing. So, for example, if you show me two players at a similar level and they both scored 15 goals last season but one of them had twice the number of chances, I want the guy who's had twice the number of chances. Even though you might say: ‘Oh, but he was less efficient.’ The fact that he was getting in position for the shot, that's really important for us.”
Benham was being interviewed by Roger Bennett, founder and host of the hugely successful US football podcast Men In Blazers. When Bennett, who is from Liverpool and an avid Everton supporter, brought Beto’s name into the conversation, Benham provided an interesting take on a forward whose goals saved Everton last year but dried up just as the Blues arrived at the GTech Community Stadium. The striker has recently scored important goals at Brighton and Newcastle United, though he also missed what looked set to be a pivotal one-on-one at St James' Park.
Benham suggested Beto should be given credit for being in positions to have good opportunities. He said: “When we played Everton at our place late last year, Beto missed three one-on-ones. Any decent model worth its salt would give Beto an upgrade. Any player who manages to make three one-on-ones in a single game, even if he actually happens to miss them.
And typically, with a one-on-one, you're like 50/50 to score. The fact that he's got three one-on-ones, he's got to get an upgrade on any decent model. Obviously, the man in the street would slate him, but actually receiving is more important than finishing.”