Houston's late-season offensive drop-off has exposed structural issues in spacing, decision-making, and shot creation. To maintain their playoff seed, the Rockets must address Alperen Sengun's post-up struggles and integrate shooters like Reed Sheppard to counter defenses that exploit non-shooters like Amen Thompson.
The Houston Rockets have had a season full of ups and downs. While for a solid stretch they looked like the best offense in the league, over the past two months they've run into increasing difficulties.
This is particularly evident in the half-court, where opponents have adjusted to their style and are consistently exploiting weaknesses–an issue Houston must address to make a significant playoff leap.
The Arrival of Kevin Durant and a Shifting Identity
Even though Kevin Durant's arrival completely changed their ceiling and he's having a great season, there are still tactical coverages opponents use that the Rockets simply don't have answers for yet.
In the playoffs, the volume, precision, and intensity of those schemes will only increase.
The Rockets built their identity this season under Ime Udoka largely around bully ball and the new offensive dimension provided by Kevin Durant.
With his arrival, the Rockets' entire playbook evolved.
The increased volume of off-screen actions, his mid-range gravity, and his status as one of the league's most difficult covers have given Houston diverse new ways to attack.
Durant
Durant
Credit AP – Scanpix
Udoka has used that dimension very well, and Durant is having a great season. Still, despite their strong record and current 3rd seed, consistent Rockets' weaknesses emerge against serious playoff contenders–flaws that remain unresolved.
The Rockets Spacing Dilemma in the Half-Court
The core issue is offensive spacing.
Houston won a lot of games through size, physicality, offensive rebounding, transition, and slashing, often with unconventional spacing, but opponents have adjusted.
In the half-court, the balance between inside and outside play, especially with the Alperen Sengun-Kevin Durant duo, has become problematic.
Sengun is a dominant post player and a huge part of the Rockets' half-court scoring, with about 22.4% of his plays originating in the post.
Teams are now defending those possessions much better because when he goes to the block, Houston often doesn't have proper spacing.
Defenses load the weak side, bring help, and force him into shots outside the restricted area.
That's the major difference between him and someone like Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is elite at finishing these possessions with floaters, fadeaways, and touch shots. Conversely, Sengun is shooting just 38% from the field on similar looks this season.
That's a percentage defenses are happy to live with.
Yes, Sengun is a very good passer, but when the help comes from non-shooters–such as when Amen Thompson is ignored in the corner–the defense can collapse without consequence.
And because Sengun still isn't efficient enough as a scorer from those zones, Houston's half-court offense stalls whenever they try to force the game through the post.
From that standpoint, Houston clearly lacks a true playmaker capable of better balancing the inside–outside dynamic, organizing the offense in pick-and-roll, lowering usage in certain actions, and reducing spacing problems in slower half-court sets.
Sengun
Sengun
Credit AP - Scanpix
Durant's Limitations and the Shooting Void
But Durant isn't flawed either. He is one of the greatest scorers ever, and he remains among the league's most efficient players this season, even at this stage of his career.
Yet, there's a long-standing weakness in his game: decision-making against physical defenses, traps, and situations where he must create for teammates.
That has followed him throughout his career. He's averaging 3.2 turnovers, many of which occur when the next-man help arrives via stunts, doubles, or nail help as he tries to force a read.
We've seen this in past playoff runs, and now that he's again the primary scorer on a team that once had the league's best offense, defenses have adjusted: they defend Sengun differently and send more help at Durant.
And just like in Sengun's post-ups, the spacing around Durant often isn't good enough. When Sengun is in the dunker spot, and Amen Thompson is also on the court, you end up with two non-shooters around Durant.
With two of his four teammates lacking a perimeter threat, the defense gains a significant advantage.
AMEN
AMEN
Credit AP/Scanpix nuotr.
Solutions for Rockets Offense: Reed Sheppard and Future Adjustments
So spacing is the problem Houston still hasn't solved. To fix it, they'll have to tweak their lineup structure, leaning into different five-man units and granting Reed Sheppard more minutes and freedom.
That's their offensive ceiling. With VanVleet injured, Houston must accelerate Sheppard's development because he's already shown he can be a very good NBA player, and when he's on the floor, the spacing improves dramatically compared to lineups with Amen Thompson.
And all of these details become even more important in close-game situations, where poor spacing is unaffordable. Increasingly against top-tier teams, opponents identify exactly what they can concede, allowing their defense to play with a clear sense of control.
All of it has led to the Rockets' offensive rating dropping by about seven points per 100 possessions.
In the regular season, you can still compensate for that, but in the postseason, such flaws are fatal. Rockets must address it urgently.
Despite having a talented roster and physical toughness, certain individual developments remain critical.
Alperen Sengun needs to step up; he hasn't been knocking down shots consistently, which allows defenses to adjust and pack the paint.
Amen Thompson has shown great potential as a point guard, with his slashing ability opening up many opportunities for the team.
However, concerns persist regarding his shooting and decision-making in tight spaces. These areas must be resolved if Houston intends to compete for a title.
This Old-School Tactic Is Breaking The NBA
Vukašin Nedeljković
Vukašin played basketball competitively in his youth, and now contributes to Synergy Sports Technology and Sportradar regarding basketball analysis. He also has experience working as a journalist in Serbia and is passionate about writing basketball articles mainly focused on basketball X's and O's.
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