The new NFL league year officially begins today at 4:00 EST, but the legal tampering period gave us many huge signings, trades, and trades that we thought were finalized but it turned out one team had their fingers crossed behind their back.
After the smoke cleared from the first big wave of free agency, the Los Angeles Rams sit atop the leaderboard in terms of best odds to win the Super Bowl in 2026 at +700, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and other teams have risen and fallen after the moves they’ve made - or didn’t make. Here are the biggest winners and losers from free agency thus far.
Winner: Las Vegas Raiders
I really like what the Raiders have done thus far. Adding Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker to their defense gives them two much-needed upgrades in the middle of the field, and signing Tyler Linderbaum adds one of the league’s top centers for the (not official but come on, it’s official) No. 1 pick, Fernando Mendoza. Re-signing Eric Stokes keeps a good cornerback on their books, as well, and Jalen Nailor is a nice piece to add to their receiving corps.
Loser: Las Vegas Raiders
But… unfortunately for the Raiders, the Baltimore Ravens got cold feet after agreeing to send two first-round picks to Las Vegas in exchange for Maxx Crosby. The Ravens backed out of the trade and immediately pivoted to sign Trey Hendrickson. While a failed physical was cited as the reason for the negated trade, it wasn’t a secret that Crosby had surgery after the season. This reeks of a team seeing a player’s market being lower than expected and pulling out of a deal because of it. The Raiders almost certainly won’t get a deal that good for Crosby the second time around - real loser behavior from the Ravens. And, not for nothing, but even though Linderbaum is a great player, giving him $27 million per season is an insane overpay.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
Les Snead put the “F Them Picks” cape and cowl back on, trading for Kansas City Chiefs All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie after the Rams’ secondary was ripped to shreds in the playoffs. And if one Chiefs cornerback is good, two is better, because Los Angeles also signed Jaylen Watson, giving them the Chiefs’ 2025 starting cornerback tandem.
Loser: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have lost Kenneth Walker, Coby Bryant, Boye Mafe, and Riq Woolen over the last two days - all of whom were consequential pieces to Seattle winning the Super Bowl. While they re-signed wide receiver Rashid Shaheed and Josh Jobe, they’ll need to add a few more pieces to relinquish what they’ve lost.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have only made one massive signing, adding Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker. The Chiefs had just three runs of 20+ yards in 2025 - Walker had 10. His signing, combined with the return of Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, will have the Chiefs back on top of the AFC West and likely making a deep run in January.
Loser: Carolina Panthers
Giving $30 million per year to Jaelan Phillips is like paying $76 for a bottle of Dasani. He had five sacks in 2025, and has never put together a double-digit sack season. Just an absurd use of resources. They do deserve credit for signing Devin Lloyd, but the Phillips move is a shadow that looms over everything else. He had better turn into a premier pass rusher.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have had a great start to the offseason. Trading for Michael Pittman Jr. gives them a legitimate No. 2 opposite DK Metcalf, and Jamel Dean was my No. 1 cornerback in this class. Pairing him with rising superstar Joey Porter Jr. gives Pittsburgh one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. Rico Dowdle is also an upgrade from Kenneth Gainwell. They still don’t have a quarterback, but it certainly looks as if it will be Aaron Rodgers or Kyler Murray. Considering the influx of talent on both sides of the ball, they are much better than they were a week ago,
Loser: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville lost both Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd, two of their five most important players from 2025. Additionally, they have made zero external signings at the time of writing, their only move being re-signing Dennis Gardeck to a two-year, $6.5 million deal.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
I’m predicting that I’m going to predict the Saints to win the NFC South in 2026. They went out and got a very good running back in Travis Etienne, as well as one of the best left guards in the league by signing David Edwards. They also stole linebacker Kaden Elliss from the division-rival Atlanta Falcons. They won four of their last five in 2025, and Tyler Shough showed that he has the potential to be their-long term answer. The Saints are doing everything right, which is weird to say considering the last half-decade of paying old players and kicking the can down the road on their contracts.
Loser: Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce is a good receiver, but in no world should he be making more per season than Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith. Nor should Daniel Jones be given $44 million per year for playing eight good games after being terrible for six years. I understand that many will point to Sam Darnold and what he just did in Seattle, but there will be many jobs lost trying to find another Sam Darnold. I don’t see this going well for Indianapolis.
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