Signing Jaelan Phillips appears to be a majorly positive move for the Carolina Panthers. They instantly upgraded their pass rush and got one of the best pressure players in the NFL.
Given their need at the position, the sack stats and pressure metrics, and the fact that they couldn't pick Rueben Bain or David Bailey in any scenario, adding a player like Phillips is one of the best moves made yet
But it carries a secret risk. In fact, it carries a couple of risks that might be getting overlooked.
Why Jaelan Phillips at $30 million is a big risk for the Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) walks off the field after win
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) walks off the field after win | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
The Panthers are paying Jaelan Phillips an average of $30 million a year. Barring a Bryce Young extension any time soon, that is the single biggest salary of any Panther. It's more than Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn, and Robert Hunt.
That alone is a big risk, especially because there's almost no way the Panthers get their money's worth. Phillips is a very good player, but at $30 million, he's reaching the salary of Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, and Brian Burns.
Phillips has never even had double-digit sack totals. While his pressure stats are amazing and are all but assured to help transform the defense, the Panthers need sacks, and there will probably be plenty of games where Phillips isn't in the box score.
That's not ideal for the highest-paid player on the roster. Age and other factors matter, but Trey Hendrickson for $28 million a year is likely to help the Ravens produce more sacks than Phillips at $30 million for the Panthers.
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) looks on during warmups prior to an NFC Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) looks on during warmups prior to an NFC Wild Card Round | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
There's also a troubling injury history. Phillips has had two season-ending lower leg injuries. They weren't terribly recently, as he played 17 games last season, but there's always a risk with players who've been hurt. As he gets older and puts more tread on his tires, those injuries could play a role.
The final risk is for the future. Obviously, $30 million for anyone is expensive, and adding such a big contract to the books of a team that, quite frankly, still has plenty of needs is a risk.
They will have a hard time signing anyone next year, and does anyone believe this team has finally added all the pieces? It's unlikely, but the salary cap constraints put on by the Phillips deal are going to be felt for a while, and there's a risk his production does not match the cost.