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Toronto Raptors
They can't shoot and aren't deep enough. Fixing things won't be easy.
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Published Mar 12, 2026 • 5 minute read
New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray (5) stands over Toronto Raptors guard Jamal Shead.
New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray (5) stands over Toronto Raptors guard Jamal Shead. AP Photo
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An uplifting Toronto Raptors season is going off the rails.
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After 25- and 30-win campaigns, this group has spent much of the year in the Eastern Conference’s Top 4 and moved 11 games over .500 on Feb. 22 with a blowout win at Milwaukee.
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But a pair of rough losses, in Houston on Tuesday and perhaps the ugliest of the year Wednesday at New Orleans, put the Raptors at 2-6 since the Bucks game.
Toronto, once looking like a comfortable playoff near-lock, now merely appears to be a sure bet only to make the NBA’s play-in tournament.
If you’ll recall, long-time but now former Raptors boss Masai Ujiri once famously said: “Play-in, for what?” illustrating his disdain for being a mediocre team.
Whereas these Raptors once seemed in range to take on Cleveland in the 4-5 playoff matchup (taking a surprising 3-0 record against the pre-James Harden add Cavaliers into that potential first-round series), they now might have to fight tooth and nail just to advance to a series against either Detroit, Boston or New York (three teams they’ve shown zero answers for). Nobody would expect a matchup against any of those squads to last more than five games.
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Toronto entered Thursday’s slate of games in seventh in the East, a half game behind both Orlando and Miami for the final playoff spots, one game up on Philadelphia, two up on Atlanta and three ahead of Charlotte.
It’s highly unlikely that Milwaukee, 5.5 games behind Charlotte, will be able to get into the play-in race, but the Bucks do have Giannis Antetokounmpo back playing and he’s a game-changer.
WHAT ARE THE PLAY-IN RULES?
If the season ended now, Toronto would host Nick Nurse’s Sixers, with the winner advancing to the playoffs as the seventh seed. The loser would play the winner of Charlotte at Atlanta for the eighth spot.
Toronto has made the play-in once, blowing a big lead against DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls at home in 2023 in a demoralizing performance.
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Since then we’ve seen stars Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby traded, point guard Fred VanVleet leave via free agency as well as management and coaching changes. Only Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl remain from that team.
HOW DID THEY GET HERE?
All season we’ve cautioned that this group looked like paper tigers, outplaying their talent level and roster construction limitations, but eventually poised to settle at their actual level.
In today’s NBA, shooting ability is paramount and Toronto might have the weakest collection of quality outside shooters in the league. The team has managed to rank 20th in offensive efficiency despite that fatal flaw, largely because it is so good in transition, feasting off opponent’s turnovers.
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But they’re only 25th in three-point makes per game, 26th in accuracy, 25th in the percentage of points that come from three-pointers, 25th in catch-and-shoot three-point percentage, 30th in pull-up three-point percentage and 29th in wide open three-point attempts.
They’ve also been awful in fourth quarters after starting the year playing pretty solid in crunch time. Too often the offence abandons them, with four players giving Brandon Ingram the ball and getting out of the way.
The defence has sagged lately (partly because young Collin Murray-Boyles, already an impactful defender as a rookie, has been out of the lineup) and the Raptors showed a shocking lack of fight and pride against New Orleans when Jamal Shead was bullied by a taunting Dejounte Murray.
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Only Immanuel Quickley, usually pretty mild-mannered, stepped up to try to confront Murray in a winnable game the Pelicans had turned into a laugher.
NOT OVER-HYPING
To their credit, neither general manager Bobby Webster, nor head coach Darko Rajakovic have ever tried to over-hype or over-sell where this Raptors team is at. Even when Toronto was rolling, nearing the top of the conference’s standings with an elite defence, both Webster and Rajakovic were careful to remind that they are still building something and are nowhere close to a finished product.
That was smart because they’re clearly not close to contention. They’ve lost all but four games against top competition this season and just aren’t deep or talented enough when compared to top opponents.
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Only Barnes and Ingram can safely be described as above average at their positions. Poeltl has been before, but this year has declined due to a back injury.
Quickley is probably about league average as a starting point guard, RJ Barrett is around there too and the bench is one of the league’s weakest in terms of overall consistency and effectiveness.
The starting lineup doesn’t work because Poeltl is a non-shooter, Barnes a poor outside shooter, Barrett a streaky outside shooter and Ingram an unwilling three-point gunner (he simply doesn’t take enough three-pointers, even though he can make them).
Murray-Boyles seems like a diamond in the rough, but his best position is power forward, which Barnes has handled for years to come. Murray-Boyles also is not a reliable shooting threat and would complicate the starting group even more if they decided to swap out Barrett for him (though he has looked good as an undersized centre and provides more offence than Poeltl).
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Free agency won’t provide solutions. The Raptors once again will have to hit a home run at the draft like they did with Murray-Boyles. The one upside of dropping in the standings is a higher draft pick.
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[Trey Murphy III of the New Orleans Pelicans has the ball stolen by Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors during the first quarter of an NBA game at Smoothie King Center on March 11, 2026 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Raptors tumble down standings after awful loss in New Orleans](https://torontosun.com/sports/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors/raptors-tumble-down-standings-loss-new-orleans)
2. [Gradey Dick of the Toronto Raptors drives to the net against Caleb Martin of the Dallas Mavericks during Sunday's game.
RJ Barrett’s play, Gradey Dick’s return and Scottie Barnes’ shooting fuel Raptors optimism](https://torontosun.com/sports/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors/rj-barrett-gradey-dick-scottie-barnes-optimism)
The past 12 16th-overall selections (Toronto could pick around there in June) have yielded one all-star (Alperen Sengun), six good rotation players and four outright busts.
The past 12 17th-overall selections have yielded one likely all-star (Trey Murphy), five rotation players and six busts. Recent 18th or 19th picks have not done well overall.
Should Toronto bomb out of the play-in, they could pick around 14th and players taken there include 83-point man Bam Adebayo, NBA champion Michael Porter Jr. and intriguing Spurs rookie Carter Bryant.
At 13, teams have come away with Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro and Jalen Duren (the Raptors also got Gradey Dick there three years ago).
It didn’t seem like we’d be connecting Toronto to draft picks in that range, but things change.
@WolstatSun
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