The biggest mistake the Colts made in Week 1 of 2026 free agency was trying to “have it all” on offense — paying Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce like unquestioned cornerstones, then shipping out the one proven volume alpha in Michael Pittman Jr.
Betting on an injured Daniel Jones
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) is tended to by trainers after going down with an apparent injury against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at EverBank Stadium.
© Travis Register-Imagn Images
Less than three months after Daniel Jones tore his right Achilles, Indianapolis doubled down on him by giving him a huge short-term deal while he recovers from an injury that often changes a quarterback's career path. An Achilles tear is not the same as a normal high-ankle sprain. It affects Jones' ability to explode in the lower leg, drive off the back foot, move around and scramble outside the pocket, all of which are important parts of his game in 2025.
He was in the middle of a real renaissance season with Indianapolis, completing 261 of 384 passes for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 starts before the injury — efficient, vertical, and aggressive within Shane Steichen’s system. That version of Jones attacked down the field and extended plays; the question is whether he can still play that way once he’s back.
In the past, quarterbacks have been able to come back from Achilles surgery, but they often lose a step in functional mobility and need a full season to get their timing and confidence back in the pocket. That lag is important when you're paying close to the highest price on what is basically a two-year window.
For the Colts, the risk isn’t just medical; it’s structural. If Jones is even 5–10% less mobile, Steichen has to adjust the offense — more quick game, less boot action, more protection resources committed up front, which in turn reduces the explosive downfield shots that made Indy’s passing game so dangerous last year. You’re paying for 2025 Daniel Jones while betting his post‑Achilles version can replicate that ceiling almost immediately.
Alec Pierce’s contract vs. his profile
The other half of this equation is Alec Pierce signing the richest free‑agent wide receiver deal in NFL history, despite never functioning as a true WR1 or even posting a 50‑catch season in Indianapolis. Pierce has always profiled as a high‑variance, vertical X/Z — a field‑stretcher who wins outside the numbers, not a high‑volume chain mover in the Pittman mold.
Free agent WR Alec Pierce has agreed to terms to remain in Indianapolis on a historic 4 year $114M deal that will make him the highest paid free agent receiver in NFL History.
The deal negotiated by agents Mike Swenson and CJ LaBoy, came together overnight and contains $84m in… pic.twitter.com/Op9qCpsNYq
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 9, 2026
The raw production underscores that concern. In 2025, he posted 47 receptions for 1,003 yards and 6 touchdowns, an eye‑popping 21.34 yards per catch that ranked near the top of the league, but on modest volume for a supposed centerpiece. The year before, he logged 37 catches for 824 yards and 7 scores, again thriving as a big‑play specialist rather than a target hog. Even going back to 2023, Pierce was at just 32 receptions for 514 yards and 2 touchdowns, the theme is consistent: splash plays, not steady diet.
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You can build an excellent passing game around a player like that, but you typically don’t hand him the single biggest free‑agent receiver contract in league history and ask him to become your do‑everything WR1 overnight.
Pierce has never had to deal with the same amount of targets or routes as Pittman did, which included a lot of heavy in-breaker usage, tough catches over the middle, and a lot of third-down and red-zone volume. Paying Pierce like an elite No. 1 while his stats still scream “premium No. 2” is a classic example of mixing up role and talent. The upside is real, but the risk is that his efficiency will go down when defenses focus on him and the volume goes up.
Letting Michael Pittman pay the price
The Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers, and the deal was based on both the salary cap and football evaluation. Pittman was on a three-year extension that he signed in 2024, but it would have cost a lot of money in 2026. Once Indianapolis gave Pierce his big contract and had to pay Jones to keep him, something had to give. The front office decided to move the only proven high-volume target in the building.
Trading Michael Pittman Jr. will open up $24 million in cap space for the Colts. https://t.co/VXjpvYvMuH
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2026
The Colts traded Pittman to Pittsburgh, where he immediately signed a new three-year, $59 million extension. This gave them a top-heavy cap structure with an injured quarterback and an unproven WR1 instead of a more balanced core. Each move makes sense on its own: betting on Jones' recovery, giving Pierce a big bonus for his breakout, and not giving a third big contract to a receiver.
The biggest mistake of Week 1 in free agency for a team that finally found offensive continuity last season wasn't any one contract or trade. It was the combination of overpaying Pierce, betting on Jones's health, and then letting the cap squeeze out Pittman, the one proven alpha. If this bet doesn't pay off, the Colts will have to spend the next few years trying to get back the version of their offense they just paid to break up.