RJ Harvey scored 12 total touchdowns for the Denver Broncos despite only playing on 42% of the offensive snaps. His 12 TDs led the team. He gained 46 first downs, which was the second on the team, behind Courtland Sutton with 52 (not counting passing first downs). His 18 receiving first downs was only one behind Evan Engram’s 19. JK Dobbins had 0 receiving first downs, which surprised me. Tyler Badie had 9 and Jaleel McLaughlin had 2. I guess Dobbins inability in the passing game was another reason for the predictability of the Broncos on offense in 2025.
Harvey’s 12 touchdowns was the tied for 12th most by a rookie RB this century. Clinton Portis had the most with 17 in 2002. Mike Anderson is also in the top, as are Phillip Lindsay and Knowshon Moreno. The most rookie RB TDs ever was Gale Sayers’ 22 in 1965. All of those were rushing TDs.
You’ll notice that Dobbins and Kenneth Walker are both on the list. You’ll also notice that while many of these RBs went on to have great careers, others flamed out badly after a strong rookie season.
Focusing on just rushing, Harvey did not have a great rookie season. His 3.70 yards per carry were 256th out of 361 rookie RBs this century with 30 or more carries as a rookie. His 45.2% rushing success rate was 199th. There are a number of former and one current Bronco on the list of rookie RBs who had really high success rates.
Admittedly, Peyton Hillis, Juwan Thompson and Tatum Bell all had less than 76 carries as rookies. Dobbins is also on the list. He had 134 carries as a rookie and this was his second best season in terms of rushing success rate. For those who don’t remember, success on a run is gaining 40% of the needed first down yardage on first down, 60% on second, and converting on 3rd or 4th down. There are some fringe Hall of Fame RBs on here - Steven Jackson, Ezekiel Elliot and Derrick Henry.
On the flipside below are rookie RBs this century who had very poor success rates. Almost all of these RBs had very short NFL careers. Only one Bronco, is on this list, Andre Hall. His 4.91 YPC looks good at first glance, but he was a very inconsistent with a few long runs and many stuffed runs.
Kimani Vidal was one of the primary RBs for the Chargers last season with 155 carries. He actually had a huge jump in success rate in his second season, but most of these guys never did since many never got a second season. Oddly enough, Hall did, but he only got 35 carries in his second season and he was out of the league after two seasons.
So let’s look at rookie RBs under Sean Payton and how they fared in their second season.
The two most recognizable names are Reggie Bush (2006) and Alvin Kamara (2017). Bush was the second overall pick and was used heavily as a rookie and as a second year back, but he was never the primary runner in the Saints offense. He got 155 carries as a rookie and 157 the next season. He was most heavily targetted as a rookie (121 targets!), when he was the most targeted player on the Saints. That season he and Deuce McAllister combined for 517 touches! 399 rushes and 118 catches. That doesn’t even count the punt returns from Bush.
I think Sean Payton might have wanted Dobbins and Harvey to be his Bush and McAllister in 2025, but Harvey isn’t as dynamic as Bush and JK isn’t as durable as Deuce. So let’s move on to Alvin Kamara.
Kamara jumped from 120 carries as a rookie to 194 carries in his second season. While Mark Ingram was the primary ball carrier in 2017 with almost double the carries, Kamara became the primary runner in 2018 with the injury to Ingram. It also should be noted that Kamara has roughly 100 targets every season for his first 4. Kamara had 81 catches every year for his first three seasons! He than had 83 in his 4th season.
Harvey had 47 catches on 58 targets as a rookie. If his pass blocking improves, I could see him getting close to the same level of utilization in the passing game that a young Kamara got. It should also be remembered that RJ Harvey is still learning how to play RB. So I expect him to have a much better second season than his rookie year.
See More:
* [Denver Broncos Analysis](/denver-broncos-analysis)
* [Denver Broncos Stats](/denver-broncos-stats)