Following a sobering first leg in Paris, Chelsea are on the brink of Champions League elimination. On Wednesday night, Liam Rosenior's side were smashed 5-2 by holders Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their last 16 tie at Parc des Princes. The clash was level with 15 minutes remaining, only for Vitinha's lob to fire PSG in front, before Khvicha Kvaratskhelia came off the bench to score twice.
Thus, according to Football Rankings, Chelsea now have just a 7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, having been at 53% before kick off in the French capital. The Blues did hammer les Rouge-et-Bleu 3-0 in last summer's Club World Cup Final in East Rutherford, and will require a similarly emphatic dismantling of the European Champions to remain alive in continental competition.
Given the heavy deficit, those Chelsea supporters traveling to Stamford Bridge next Tuesday should probably be encouraged by the 7% chance their side do have of progression. With that in mind, have the Blues ever overturned a three-goal first leg deficit before?
Chelsea's European ties when losing the first leg by 3+ goals
Competition First leg score Second leg score
2020 Champions League round of 16 Chelsea 0-3 Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 4-1 Chelsea
2026 Champions League round of 16 PSG 5-2 Chelsea TBC
Amazingly, Wednesday was only the second time Chelsea have lost the first leg of a European tie by three or more goals. That second leg did not go particularly well, smashed 4-1 by Bayern Munich in Bavaria, the two fixtures taking place 165 days apart due to Covid-19.
It was also only the second time the Blues have shipped five or more goals in a Champions League fixture, the other a the second leg of a quarter-final in 2000. Back then, Gianluca Vialli's side beat Barcelona 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, before a 5-1 hammering at Camp Nou, albeit two of the goals, scored by Rivaldo and Patrick Kluivert, came during extra time in Catalonia. Looking on the flip side, les Parisiens have something of a history when it comes to collapses.
Paris Saint-Germain's European ties when winning the first leg by 3+ goals
Competition First leg score Second leg score
1984 UEFA Cup first round PSG 4-0 Heart of Midlothian Heart of Midlothian 2-2 PSG
1993 Cup Winners' Cup second round PSG 4-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 0-2 PSG
1994 Champions League qualifier PSG 3-0 Vác FC-Samsung Vác FC-Samsung 1-2 PSG
1997 Cup Winners' Cup first round Vaduz 0-4 PSG PSG 3-0 Vaduz
1997 Cup Winners' Cup semi-finals PSG 3-0 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 PSG
2001 Intertoto Cup second round PSG 3-0 FC Jazz FC Jazz 1-4 PSG
2001 UEFA Cup second round PSG 4-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 2-2 PSG
2002 UEFA Cup first round PSG 3-0 Újpest Újpest 0-1 PSG
2011 Europa League play-off round Differdange 0-4 PSG PSG 2-0 Differdange
2014 Champions League round of 16 Bayer Leverkusen 0-4 PSG PSG 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen
2017 Champions League round of 16 PSG 4-0 Barcelona Barcelona 6-1 PSG
2021 Champions League round of 16 Barcelona 1-4 PSG PSG 1-1 Barcelona
2025 Champions League first knockout round Brest 0-3 PSG PSG 7-0 Brest
2026 Champions League round of 16 PSG 5-2 Chelsea TBC
This week was the 14th time in Paris Saint-Germain's wide-ranging European history that they have claimed a three goal advantage from a first leg. This includes demolishing Stade Brestois 10-0 on aggregate just over 12 months ago, en route to lifting the trophy.
In 12 of the previous 13 occasions, they have made the lead count and won the tie, with one infamous exception. This is, of course, the Remontada in 2017, when Barcelona lost 4-0 at Parc des Princes, only to pull off a remarkable 6-1 victory at Camp Nou, scoring three times after the 88th minute. Well, Chelsea will need to take inspiration from that as they target an unlikely remontada of their own. 7% chance but 100% faith required.