I remember getting a DM from a New York Knicks fan on the day the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle.
“Have fun,” it read, “with the Julius Randle experience.”
I replied by asking what they meant, but naturally didn’t get a response. (Rude!) Now, nearly two years into Randle’s time with the Timberwolves, I think Wolves fans and media alike understand that experience. It’s the ups and downs of his play and the on and off ability to be excellent but also disappointing.
That’s the stuff that drives you MAD pic.twitter.com/2Bp4yR410j
— Rit Holtzman (@BenRitholtzNBA) December 20, 2024
Randle played excellently from the start of the season to the end of November. In 20 games, he averaged 23.0 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 35.6% from three, and he snagged 7.5 rebounds per game, 6.0 assists, and just 2.7 turnovers. The Wolves were 12-8 in those 20 games.
In the 15 November games, Randle posted a +11.7 net rating, his best offensive and defensive ratings of any month this season. To put this into perspective, Nikola Jokic has a 10.9 net rating this season. Randle was superb in the first 20 games of the season, the offensive hub of the team, and holding his own on defense.
Then, something happened in December. It could have been the trade rumors, an injury he never publicly disclosed, or a planet going into retrograde. However, as someone who doesn’t follow astronomy, I have no idea what that means.
The point is that no one really knows what happened to Randle.
In 46 games since Dec. 1, Randle is averaging 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, while playing nearly the same number of minutes per game and having a similar usage percentage as in the first 20 games. That’s a 2.7 point decrease, 0.8 rebounds less, and a 1.2 assist drop per game.
Meanwhile, his turnovers would remain roughly the same at 2.6 per game. His three-point shooting has fallen to 28.2% since Dec. 1, and his field goal percentage has fallen by 3.2% to 47.0%.
Again, what’s interesting is that his usage has been roughly the same month over month. It has never been higher than 26.9% in December and never lower than 23.4% in February. Still, his offense has become significantly less efficient.
Defensively, since posting the season-best 110.3 defensive rating in November, he has failed to post a rating better than 113.1 each month. Paired with his decreased efficiency, the elite net rating has fallen to just +2.5 from Dec. 1 to today.
To further confuse things, the Wolves as a whole have been playing well since Dec. 1. They are 28-18 as a team, but most of their rotations have become less productive. As the season has gone on, they have gotten less efficient. At the very best, they have stayed the same.
Let’s use net rating, an all-encompassing statistic with a large sample size at this point. Since Dec. 1, Randle’s net rating has fallen from 9.2 to 2.5, a 6.7-point drop. During that same time, Anthony Edwards has been at a +3.2 net rating, down from 4.7. Jaden McDaniels has a 2.7 versus 8.8. Rudy Gobert has a 4.2 net rating since Dec. 1 and a 10.7 before that. Donte DiVincenzo 6.3 since December 1 compared to 11.2 before.
That’s a lot of numbers, so let me do the math. Edwards has had a 1.5 decrease in net rating. McDaniels’ has decreased by 6.1. Gobert by 6.5, and DiVincenzo by 4.9.
To reiterate, Randle has dropped 6.7 points since Dec. 1. While much of the focus has been on Randle, the reality is that all the Wolves have seen a significant drop in efficiency, as their net rating shows, despite winning 61% of their games. That’s 1% more than their 12-8, 20-game start.
The reality of the Julius Randle experience that so many fans have been seeing this season is that ups and downs are much more than just Randle. Virtually the entire team has been a roller coaster ride. If you catch them on the right day, they are out-matching the Thunder or the Nuggets, but they are just as likely to lose to the Nets.
It’s the Timberwolves 2025-26 experience, which, when it’s bad, perhaps unfairly gets attributed solely to Randle.