Commanders links
The Athletic (paywall)
With 2 new free-agent receivers, Commanders begin to address a major roster void
Washington [brought] back Dyami Brown, a 2021 third-round pick by the franchise, and agree[d] to terms with veteran wideout Van Jefferson, a 2020 second-round pick who won Super Bowl LVI with the L.A. Rams.
Neither receiver has proven they can consistently carry the load of a true No. 2 wideout behind Terry McLaurin. But both provide traits that Washington sorely needs.
Brown, who is only 26, spent his first four seasons in Washington before leaving in 2025 to take a one-year, $10 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Brown was Washington’s leader in playoff receiving yards (229) two seasons ago, including a 21-yard catch that helped set up the Commanders’ game-winning field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round.
Jefferson, drafted 57th out of Florida in 2020, had a breakout season in 2021, when he filled in for an injured Robert Woods in L.A. Jefferson finished the regular season with 50 catches, 806 receiving yards and six touchdowns before making four catches in that season’s Super Bowl, when the Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s yet to discover similar production elsewhere.
He was traded during the 2023 season to Atlanta, where he totaled 101 receiving yards in 12 games (five starts). A season in Pittsburgh ended with 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and last year he played in Tennessee. Although he began the preseason as a projected starter, he opened the regular season fourth on the depth chart.
Neither deal precludes the Commanders from adding at the position; they likely will and need to acquire more receiving help, and this year’s draft class is especially deep on receiving talent.
Commanders Roundtable
Washington Commanders Re-Sign Starting Offensive Lineman Chris Paul
Chris Paul has agreed to a one year deal to return to the Commanders, getting another experienced piece back in the trenches.
Paul appeared in every game at left guard in 2025 and drew 15 starts after eight starts and 17 total appearances through his first three seasons with the organization. His re-signing also locks down the left side of the offensive line for the Commanders after left tackle Laremy Tunsil signed a two-year contract extension this offseason, bolstering the protection for quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Per Pro Football Reference, Paul has committed just four penalties across his four seasons with two being false starts.
The Athletic (paywall)
After first wave of 2026 free agency, what are the top needs for every NFL team?
Washington Commanders
General manager Adam Peters has so far done what he said he would this offseason: build up the defense, prioritize the pass rush, make the roster younger and add some speed. Washington’s 11 new acquisitions through Friday are all in their 20s, with many coming off their first NFL contracts. They have experience, but still plenty of potential, and they all help to fill significant voids on the roster. Washington still has plenty of work to fill out its roster (it’s still unknown what they plan to do at center) and add depth. But what the team still needs the most is an elite offensive playmaker to complement Terry McLaurin. The team agreed to short-term deals with receivers Dyami Brown and Van Jefferson, but neither have consistently been true No. 2s. Only two running backs are under contract, and neither have consistently been offensive threats. And only one of their tight ends (newly acquired Chigoziem Okonkwo) has scored multiple times in a season. — Nicki Jhabvala
Podcasts & videos
Post-Signing 1-on-1: QB Marcus Mariota | Free Agency Fridays x Next Man Up | Washington Commanders
Post-Signing 1-on-1: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo | Free Agency Friday x Next Man Up | Washington Commanders
NFC East links
Blogging the Boys
Some surprising results when comparing he Cowboys with a consensus big board
That second-round dip does not look good, but before we rush to judgement, let’s look at how the Top 5 teams by total wAV rank across draft.
The first thing that catches the eye is that four out of the Top 5 teams have one round in which they rank in the bottom third of the league. So the Cowboys’ second-round dip is not unique, very few teams are consistent from round to round. And Baltimore, kings of the first round, are beggars in the second round.
1. Consensus Board: The Round Correlation
If we look separately at each round, the correlation between Consensus Rank and wAV Surplus is quite dramatic:
Round 1 Correlation: r=−0.37
Round 2 Correlation: r=−0.70
Round 3 Correlation: r=-0.28
What this means, at least for the Cowboys, is that in Round 1, adhering to the consensus board is important (r=−0.37). In Round 2, adhering to the board is mandatory (r=−0.70), and in Round 3 it’s best ignored
(r=-0.28). Importantly, these correlations are for the Consensus Bord only. If we look at where each player was actually picked (as a proxy for the Cowboys’ Big Board), the numbers change quite considerably:
Cowboys Round 1 Correlation: r=−0.46
Cowboys Round 2 Correlation: r=+0.03
Cowboys Round 3 Correlation: r=-0.43
The Cowboys are actually outperforming the Consensus Board in rounds 1 & 3, but in round 2, their picks have close to zero correlation with surplus wAV. For the most part, they would have done much better in the second round by following the consensus draft board than by following whatever decision-making process they use in the second round.
RAS is not a “Reach License”
We saw above that RAS can be a driver of surplus wAV - in the right circumstances.
But there is a very specific subset of picks, Elite Athletes (RAS >9.5) picked between 25 and 64, that - depending on your view - show a fascinating and/or worrying “Jekyll and Hyde” dynamic in the Cowboys’ drafting strategy: There is a near-perfect correlation (+0.98) between Reach/Steal and wAV Surplus within this group.
When the Cowboys wait for an athlete to fall to them (e.g., Connor Williams, Chidobe Awuzie), they generate massive surplus value.
When the Cowboys chase an athlete by “reaching” ahead of the consensus board (e.g., Trysten Hill, Luke Schoonmaker), the elite athleticism almost never overcomes the technical or developmental deficiencies that caused the consensus board to rank them lower.
The data suggests the Cowboys often fall in love with athletic traits in the late first and second round and ignore the consensus warning. Specifically in the second round for the Cowboys, elite athleticism is a multiplier, not a substitute. It multiplies the value of a good football player (consensus high rank) into a potential star, but it cannot turn a project (consensus low rank/reach) into a surplus producer quickly enough to justify the draft capital.
NFL league links
The Athletic (paywall)
Bills promised a new way, but Josh Allen remains their answer for everything
At the news conference explaining McDermott’s ouster, Pegula eventually said it was because Buffalo had been incapable of breaching the “proverbial playoff wall.” Still, the owner didn’t mention that in the prepared statement to deliver his tone-setting, opening remarks.
Pegula — and whoever advised him to frame the surprising decision that way — wanted to take us into the theater of the mind and imagine Allen’s sobbing husk inside the heartbroken locker room.
Nobody makes Josh Allen cry and gets away with it, apparently.
Pegula vowed a new day and a new way, promoting Brandon Beane to president of football operations, in addition to general manager (because he drafted Allen), and promoting Joe Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach (because he knows Allen best).
Yet here we are after the most significant few days of meaningful, roster-changing NFL transactions, and the Bills don’t look much different in terms of personnel or identity.
Allen remains the answer to every question regarding the Bills.
Brady is 6 1/2 years older than Allen. At his introductory news conference, he gushed over his quarterback and proclaimed that every decision will be made to get Allen that long-overdue Lombardi Trophy.
Sometimes, it feels like “The Twilight Zone” episode about Anthony Fremont, the 6-year-old boy whom his family and townsfolk must constantly praise and reassure, lest they be banished to a cornfield purgatory.
Allen — and I say his name instead of “the Bills,” because he essentially is viewed as the entire team — needs help on defense even more if he’s going to reach another level of success.
Buffalo fans have been riled for months, but their frustrations grew as early free-agency negotiations commenced Monday and nothing juicy transpired.
Other teams with expensive quarterbacks made headliner moves. New England added to the FOMO by adding several players, including receiver Romeo Doubs, safety Kevin Byard and Buffalo fullback Reggie Gilliam. The hated Patriots have also been sniffing around receiver A.J. Brown.
Forty minutes before the new league year dawned at 4 p.m. Wednesday, I searched recent tweets mentioning “Brandon Beane,” and folks were enraged. Bills fans just don’t like the guy anymore. Big Baller Beane’s popularity has been in quicksand since the end of the 2024 season, and offseason developments have accelerated the descent. The “Bargain Bin Beane” nickname is taking over.
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