CALEB WILSON | 6’10 - 215lb | FRESHMAN
STATS: 19.8 PPG | 9.4 RPG | 2.7 APG | 1.5 SPG | 1.4 BPG | 57/25/71 SPLITS
Comparisons: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jermaine O’Neal, Gerald Wallace, Kevin Garnett
Caleb Wilson is one of the sensational freshmen who has dominated the NCAA with his size and cognition. Now, because his season came to an unfortunate end, due to a thumb injury, we have the entire sample of his collegiate production at UNC. We can see that he left his mark by being an impactful rebounder on both ends, by ending a lot of opponent possessions because of his defense, by being a connective passer at volume while carrying a substantial amount of usage, also by taking care of the ball effectively, and lastly by being a physical and efficient scorer inside the arc. There is no doubt that Caleb Wilson will find ways to leave his footprint on games simply because of his ancillary production alone. With Caleb leaving the season with what is currently the second-highest BPM among freshmen this year, and what would be 9th among drafted freshmen All-Time, along with his BPM being primarily influenced by his ancillary skills, you could potentially put him as high as 1, and you can only choose to fade him so far. But why would one even fathom fading a player with cognition this advanced relative to size and position, and a player as impactful as Caleb is overall? As I have already stated, you can only put a player like Caleb so low because of his undeniable skills, but I believe there is reasonable doubt that Caleb’s production can potentially be hindered by his limited functionality, coordination, and inability to space the floor when he attempts to translate his game to the league.
Being a player of Caleb’s size, around 6’10”, and being able to pass the way he does, with an AST% volume of 18%, makes him extremely valuable. However, I believe that being able to maximize your playmaking by passing off the dribble is essential. The ways we can proxy handle & “creation” through numbers can be found through playtype distribution & efficiency, along with the number of FGM assisted on.
Caleb Wilson’s playtype distribution (via Synergy Sports)
Caleb Wilson’s playtype distribution (via Synergy Sports)
Caleb’s top playtypes in the halfcourt are post-ups, cutting/dunker spot, offensive rebounding, and spotting up. While post-ups are deemed as self-creation, there is no evidence that posting up is an indicator of demanding substantial on-ball usage in the league, especially if you are not a center or do not space the floor.
Post-up freq.20%, 3PR <.20, USG >25, Age u21" data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="w91vxg0" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/postup.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400">
Post-up freq. >20%, 3PR <.20, USG >25, Age u21
Because we have an idea of how Caleb is utilized through his playtype distribution, we can look and see if this is just coaching utilization or simply because he cannot do it — it can be fair to say that the answer is both.
Caleb has 37 attempts in isolation, where he is 32% on the FGA (0.622 PPP overall), and for playtypes in the halfcourt, Caleb turns the ball over in isolation more than any other playtype at 16.2%. Because we already know Caleb is best utilized off the ball, that shouldn’t be much of a surprise on limited attempts for a guy with a surplus of usage. However, if we wanted to increase the sample of on-ball reps, we could look at his total drives, where he has 68 possessions and a drive frequency of 16.1%, but unfortunately, he is still scoring at a very low rate of 35.4% FG.
The lack of being able to maximize his basketball ingenuity hinders the cap of his attainable roles in the league.
For most of these forwards above who had passing volume, the ones who provided the most offensive utility were those who could dribble and or shoot, thus being able to maximize their playmaking ability by being able to bend defenses or open the floor. Right now, Caleb Wilson can neither consistently nor reliably put the ball on the floor nor space the floor. This begs the question of how ethical his current offensive scoring process is!
His ancillary scoring process is simple: it involves creating transition opportunities by ending possessions (defensive rebounding & stocks) and also crashing the offensive glass at a high rate.
OReb/Putback freq. 9%-15%, Transition freq.15%, BLK% >2, STL% >2, Height >6’8" data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="w91vxg0" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.slcdunk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/145/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-08-204824.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400">
OReb/Putback freq. 9%-15%, Transition freq. >15%, BLK% >2, STL% >2, Height >6’8
By being an absurd opponent possession ender on defense and having the ability to increase his own team’s possessions by crashing the offensive glass, he increases his own team’s potential scoring chances each night. Additionally, because Caleb is so turnover-averse, it only amplifies team ball security even more on a nightly basis.
Caleb Wilson possession maxxing query
Caleb Wilson possession maxxing query
Ancillary skills matter, and there’s evidence that Caleb will be a productive player no matter what. With a couple of the guys above, there’s also an additional backing to Avi’s (@100guaranteed on X) OAS (offensive rebounding, assists, stocks) integration that leads to potential shooting development:
Now, with all of that being said, there is reason to believe that his half-court scoring process outside of rebounding is poor. Estimating and accounting for the fact that ~82 of his 176 rim attempts come from putbacks & transition (per Synergy), due to the nature of each playtype, one could argue that his diet leans a little too mid-range heavy. Since Caleb is a suboptimal driver and scorer with the basketball, and because he chooses to score in the post and take mid-range jumpers, is it crazy to say that his scoring process is flawed? I don’t think so.
However, if Caleb did choose to start shooting, another question arises: How would his offensive ancillary skills take a hit because of his floor spacing desires? 3PT rate and offensive rebounding go hand in hand, and it’s relatively consistent throughout history. If you attempt more 3s, you decrease the amount of individual offensive rebounding chances because you’re not as close to the hoop. At what clip would Caleb have to shoot 3s in order to offset his ancillary reduction? Now that I am not sure. Logically speaking, it may help the team overall because it can potentially open up the floor, but it’s not crazy to say that he would hurt the team by not providing enough offensive value if the shooting is unreliable. The good news here is that there is always a fallback if the shooting experiment fails.
I believe that two of the closest, and most recent, proxies the NBA has for Caleb Wilson’s translation to the league are Trayce Jackson-Davis and Collin Murray-Boyles:
Collin Murray-Boyles & Trayce Jackson-Davis’s collegiate profiles
Both TJD and CMB were both players at the 4/5 spot who had limited shooting but offered a significant amount of ancillary production by being connective passers, great rebounders, fantastic defenders, and by also being solid athletes. While Caleb may have a more encouraging shooting projection, the floor is really high already for him to become a productive NBA player. These comparisons may not be the flashiest of names, but if you want to look at it from a redraft perspective, CMB has had a fantastic rookie year and is already living up to/outplaying his draft slot, and TJD, according to class VORP & BPM metrics, would go top 6 in a 2023 redraft. I feel like it’s safe to say that players who have offered up what Caleb can do leave a footprint on games night in and night out.
However, the original title of the post is really the embodiment of Caleb’s evaluation: While he is highly cognitive, there are limitations set on his process and projected cap due to the way he functions. Caleb is an outstanding freshman and has far exceeded my expectations coming into the year. I am saddened to see his season come to an end, but I am excited for the variety of things he will do in the NBA.