As the first wave of free agency winds down to a close, the Packers have added four players to their roster via a wide range of avenues. Through one trade, one signing of a released player, and two free agency signings, Green Bay has begun the dirty work of restocking for the 2026 season. Naturally, every move the team makes at this point is done in service of one singular goal: winning the Super Bowl.
To that end, one of the biggest questions that teams face in this period is whether signing players to contracts now (aka, immediate gratification) is a better long term strategy than reaping the eventual rewards of collecting compensatory selections a year later.
But before we get to that, let’s go through the minutiae of what comp picks are, and how their value is determined.
Compensatory picks have been given out to teams since 1994 (when the modern forms of free agency, the salary cap, and the draft all also came into being). By definition, they are a set of draft picks given out to teams in a corresponding fashion to the number of compensatory free agents (CFA) lost in the previous offseason. A CFA is a player who is: an unrestricted free agent (thus excluding restricted free agents and players who are cut) that ranks within the top 35% of all league players in terms of adjusted average salary per year, playing time, and other performance indicators.
Teams that lose more CFAs to other teams than they themselves acquire are thus rewarded with a compensatory selection in the draft. The formula by which the NFL actually determines what round those picks will be awarded within is not quite publicly known. However, very smart people like OverTheCap’s Nick Korte are able to put it all together for us. Just know that the average annual value is the most important factor in working that out, followed by what percentage of snaps they played in the subsequent season, and then followed by whatever post season awards the player earns. This is why the compensatory selections are doled out the year after a player signs, as how that player actually performs on that contract is hugely important.
Next up, the NFL determines the value of whatever CFA that the team signed that same year, with a few simple rules. A CFA gained by a team will cancel out the highest valued CFA with the same round valuation. If there is no CFA with a same round valuation, the next highest in a lower round will be canceled out instead. The value of a cancelled out CFA can only cancel out a higher valuation if there are no other CFAs available to be canceled out.
For example, we have the Eagles’ 2020 offseason signings. Philly lost four CFAs that season, and signed one. Our own newest signing, Javon Hargrave, was signed by Philly coming off of his rookie contract with the Steelers, and was valued as a four rounder. Since Philly didn’t have a fourth round value of their own, their next highest valued CFA was canceled out instead, leaving them with three seventh round comp picks. They also signed Will Parks, who was paid outside of the top 35% of the league, and thus was not eligible for a compensatory pick.
From the same year, the Packers lost five players, four of whom qualified to be CFAs. They did not sign any players that qualified as a CFA, and thus gained comp picks as a result. If you are curious, those four comp picks turned into Royce Newman, Shemar Jean-Charles, and Isiah McDuffie (no pick was awarded for BJ Goodson, due to the maximum number of picks being reached. The same rule is why we only have one seventh round comp pick this year, instead of two.)
So, now that we have a grasp on compensatory picks as a concept, let’s talk about the 2026 offseason.
With the majority of free agency settled, we have an idea of how next year’s compensatory picks should be doled out. As of now, the Packers are expected to receive a fourth round pick for Malik WIllis (which could rise to a third based on his snap count next season), a fourth for Romeo Doubs, a fifth round pick for Quay Walker, and a fifth or sixth round pick for Rasheed Walker OR a sixth round pick for Kingsley Enagbarre. The Packers’ signing of Benjamin St-Juste will cancel out either the Rasheed Walker pick or the Kingsley Enagbarre pick, but would still leave the Packers with four comp picks.
According to OverTheCap, the Packers are sitting with $28.8 million dollars in cap space, more than enough room to make an additional signing if they had wanted to. It’s become more and more obvious, however, that the Packers don’t want to make another signing. Not a CFA, anyway.
The Packers found a perfect fit in Javon Hargrave, and even though the team is paying him more than they are paying fellow signee Benjamin St-Juste, he won’t cost the Packers a selection. Hargrave was released from his contract and does not count against the compensatory formula.
When considering whether or not the Packers should have had more interest in signing outside free agents, it’s important to remember that depending on the player, you are directly costing the team a draft pick. Maybe even a high one.
Of course, when you are in a championship window like the Packers are, how important is that? For the team to get over the final hump and bring the Lombardi home, it’s pretty clear that the team could use some difference makers now. Signing free agents this year could have been a quick and easy way to plug up the holes that the team has found itself with along the line of scrimmage and at cornerback.
On the other hand, the Packers are in desperate need of draft capital to supplement their loss of two first round picks. Additionally, the Packers are also losing a surplus of players from their roster, because their free agents classes this year and next will stem mostly from draft classes that benefited from the Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers trades. So, they’ll be bringing in fewer cheap rookie contracts than they are losing, a key aspect of how they have managed to bring on talent in free agency of late. The salary cap hits of Jordan Love and Micah Parsons are also to be considered, as the Packers can kick the can down the road, but those bills will come due eventually.
For the record, the total “value” of next year’s projected comp picks coming to Green Bay, according to the draft pick value chart, is approximately 172 points, worth a mid third round draft pick. Of course it’s not a one for one comparison, since we are talking about the value of four rookie contracts to take up space on the Packers’ roster. But it’s still worth discussing (and is, of course, the root of the contention here): would it have been worth it for the Packers to spend more on players who could make an instant impact? Perhaps at cornerback with a Riq Woolen or a Jaylen Watson? Could they have lured John Franklin-Myers to Green Bay instead of going with Johnathan Hargrave? Or perhaps they could have really thrown us all for a loop, and been in on Mike Evans. All fun ideas, but everything comes back to money.
Stockpiling those cheap rookie contracts is, and will be, a key aspect of keeping a viable team around their core of talent. Will the players on those rookie contracts be enough to get the Packers a Lombardi? I don’t know, but we also don’t know whether the free agents will either. Sometimes we don’t like to admit it, but spending in free agency can be as much of a shot in the dark as drafting is. In 2024, the Packers spent big in free agency with Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs, which was an absolute home run for the team. In 2025, they gambled again and lost big on getting any sort of ROI from Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs. We’re okay on losing out on comp picks in 2024 (those signings canceled out compensation from Darnell Savage and Jon Runyan), but I’m sure we’d all love to have the two extra picks this year, which would have stemmed from losing Eric Stokes and TJ Slaton.
Good teams know how to maximize their quantity of draft picks, while still being able to add outside talent. The Packers dabbled in this with signing Javon Hargrave after his release, and could continue to add players in this way via trades, or signing players after the draft (which is when the comp formula stops tracking signings).
The Packers should continue to live in this “best of both worlds” approach, and maximize both aspects of their team building approach. I’d love to see the Packers make a trade over the next few weeks for another player to impact the defense, though the compensation Green Bay should be willing to give up does become a bit of a pressure point.
The ultimate question of whether or not Green Bay should have leaned into stockpiling comp picks vs signing outside free agents is probably best left to the eye of the beholder. It’s now clear which side of the fence Brian Gutekunst falls on (which has probably been inevitable since the Micah Parsons trade). Barring a trade or post draft signings, the Packers will have lots of money to award extensions to their internal candidates such as Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft. Whatever money is left over will be a nice stash fund for the season, and then roll over into the 2027 offseason, where the Packers are poised to be major spenders armed with $84 million dollars in projected cap. Then the real fun begins.