The hardest thing to do in sports isn’t to win a Championship – it’s to defend that championship and go back-to-back. It’s incredibly difficult to come back the next season with the same fire and desire that carried you to your first title the previous season, and the target on your back from your opponents only gets larger. It’s why it’s so rare – the last team to go back-to-back in the NBA was the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, and in the NFL it was the 2023-24 Chiefs. In college basketball, the last team to go back-to-back was, actually, the Florida Gators, which is incredibly ironic, considering that the Gators have a chance to win back-to-back March Madness tournaments this season, and I will be picking them to do so!
Road to repeat:
Mar 14, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators guard Boogie Fland (0) dunks the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Florida’s road to a repeat started off rocky, with non-conference losses to Arizona, TCU, UConn, and Duke. But they quickly found their footing in conference play, and have only lost three times since, which was enough to secure the final 1-seed in the 68-team bracket that was unveiled today. That’s an important number, as only three champions since 2011 have come from a seed anything other than 1. They did lose in the SEC tournament to Vanderbilt, which may throw some people off the scent. However, 5 of the last 10 NCAA Tournament Champions did not win their conference tournament – it’s not a prerequisite to winning it all! Instead, let’s look at the traits that are:
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The “magic” efficiency numbers: The exact parameters get moved, but you ideally want a team that ranks in the top-10 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom: Florida ranks 9th and 6th, respectively.
Size:
Florida has one of the largest frontcourts in the nation, ranking 13th nationally in average height. This makes them a very difficult team for underdogs to punch up to, and will allow them to match up with the likes of the other giant 1-seeds like Michigan, Duke, and Arizona. It also allows them to be an elite rebounding team, of which they rank in the top-10 nationally on both sides of the ball.
Coaching:
We literally just saw Todd Golden win a National Championship last season with the Gators, with the last 3 wins all requiring second-half comebacks. Golden has proven to be one of the nation’s best in-game adjusters, who is also very clearly analytically-minded when you look at Florida’s lineup optimization, shot selection, and two-foul participation.
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Guard play:
Mar 14, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators guard Xaivian Lee (1) reacts after a made three point basket against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
We hear it every season that “guard play wins in March.” I wouldn’t have picked Florida for this reason in November, as transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee struggled to get their footing and fill the shoes left behind by Walter Clayton and Will Richard. But they’ve been playing better ball as of late, and they can be trusted to win big games in March.
The Rest:
We’ve seen contributions from Urban Klavsar and Micah Handlogten all too many times in their Florida careers
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An NBA Draft Pick: Generally speaking, National Championship-winning teams have a guy on their roster who is going to get drafted into the NBA. Florida’s Thomas Haugh is going in the lottery on ESPN’s latest mock draft.
When you add all of that together, you have the recipe for a national champion. Florida literally checks all of the boxes, and I fear no possible matchup that they could encounter. Ironically enough, they were also the 4th 1-seed in the bracket last season. This team is going back-to-back, and I am putting my stamp on it.
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