The Pittsburgh Steelers have undergone significant changes so far this offseason, from hiring a new head coach for the first time in nearly two decades to adding a number of veterans in free agency and via trade.
Yet ESPN’s Dan Graziano still has the same thought process when it comes to the Black and Gold.
In a piece reacting to the Steelers’ moves in free agency so far, Graziano once again predicts that Pittsburgh will have a losing season will occur, this time in 2026.
“First of all, it has to happen at some point. Playing 22 straight seasons without a losing record is a stunning accomplishment and a testament to the culture and stability that have defined the Steelers over that time. But the reason this isn’t an overreaction? It has kind of been on a knife’s edge for a while now, and it’s possible [Mike] Tomlin was holding it all together,” Graziano writes. “The Steelers’ win totals the past five seasons are nine, nine, 10, 10 and 10. They’ve been a good team, but it has been a while since they’ve been a great one. They haven’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season.
“The main reason they haven’t been able to elevate is that, since [Ben] Roethlisberger, they haven’t found a meaningful or lasting solution at the quarterback position. A 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who hasn’t finished in the top 20 in the league in QBR since 2021, isn’t going to fix that. At best, he’s a Band-Aid for the problem. At worst, his play goes off a cliff in the season in which he turns 43, and the Steelers are in real trouble.”
Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. That’s not good enough in Pittsburgh, and those struggles and being unable to elevate the team in the postseason played a big role in Tomlin walking away.
It offered the Steelers a chance to reset and change the trajectory of their organization a bit. Instead, they doubled down and hired Mike McCarthy. That move was met with some criticism as McCarthy is 62 years old and hasn’t had playoff success in recent years, either.
He knows offense though, and that’s why the Steelers targeted him. Trading for Michael Pittman Jr. and signing running back Rico Dowdle has given the Steelers a bit of a boost on that side of the football. Questions remain on the left side of the offensive line, and there is plenty of concern regarding the QB plan with Rodgers and the Steelers’ belief in second-year pro Will Howard.
But things are taking shape nicely for the Black and Gold.
Graziano just doesn’t see it though and thinks that run on winning seasons ends this year.
“Mike McCarthy is a good, proven, competent head coach, and bringing him in to replace Tomlin tells us the Steelers’ plan is to keep the train on the tracks. But the Steelers have had a really limited ceiling for a decade now, and at some point the floor is going to drop out,” Graziano added.
That very well may be the case. Rodgers knows McCarthy well and can operate his offense with his eyes closed. But the ceiling with Rodgers as the starting quarterback is limited. The 2026 NFL Draft doesn’t offer that high-end franchise quarterback early in the draft, either, and none of the free agent options were all that enticing.
So, it makes some sense to run it back with Rodgers one more year. Just don’t expect his play to be all that much better than it was in 2025. That should still be good enough to have a winning season though.
Maybe someday Graziano will be right with his losing season prediction. After all, if you keep predicting the same thing over and over again, you’re bound to eventually get lucky once.
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