Shortly before Vitinha put Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 up over Chelsea in the 74th minute, there were few signs the game was going to slip out of the Blues' reach. The English side had done well to level the score after PSG went up 1-0 and then 2-1 by the 40th minute, and were perhaps the better team heading into the final stretch of the game -- they had outshot the European champions seven to six, generating 1.48 expected goals to PSG's 0.44.
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The unraveling was sudden, a series of defensive errors taking it from a 2-2 game to a 5-2 defeat. The deficit is somewhere in the middle of a mess of their own making and an unlucky outcome, and ultimately, with a mountain to climb as Chelsea welcome the European champions to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday. Belief is the minimum requirement for the Blues to turn the deficit around, the team boasting an easy source of inspiration – their 3-0 win over PSG in the Club World Cup final just eight months ago.
"I think this week was difficult for us," forward Joao Pedro said on Monday. "We know our strengths, we still believe because we showed in the Club World Cup when we won 3-0. The group believe, the manager believes, the fans should believe as well."
How to watch Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain, odds
Date: Tuesday, March 17 | Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Stamford Bridge -- London
Live stream:Paramount+
Odds: Chelsea +105; Draw +330; Paris Saint-Germain +200
Chelsea likely need Tuesday's game to go perfectly if they want a shot at reaching the last eight, July's match in the New York suburbs serving as an ideal example for how they could approach things. Joao Pedro used the Club World Cup to announce himself with a goal in the final, his third in three games after joining the club midway through the tournament. More impressively, though, the Blues beat PSG at their own game that day with an all-gas-no-breaks approach, scoring all three goals in the first half before going into cruise control after the break. The game plan was quick and intense by design, and Chelsea reaping the reward in no time at all.
"Going into the game straightaway, we set the tone," defender Levi Colwill, who is currently injured but started the Club World Cup final, said shortly after that win. "We pressed the life out of them. We knew this was our last game of football for the season so there's no way I was going to go on holiday and sit there thinking, 'I wish I could have gave that little bit more for the team,' and I've told everyone this before, and we went and gave everything and that's what the scoreline reflects and that's why we won today."
It is a sound approach to Tuesday's match, but the option may not actually be available to them. They may have been at the end of a long season on that hot and humid day in July, but eight months later, and only the semblance of an offseason in between, the impact of fixture congestion lingers over the Blues. Take, for example, Cole Palmer – once Chelsea's brightest star, the England international has not looked the same since, clearly not playing at 100% for much of the season. Managing his minutes has been one of Liam Rosenior's first tasks since taking the Chelsea job in January, so much so that he was unable to start Palmer for a crucial EFL Cup semifinal match against Arsenal last month. Joao Pedro has tried to fill in the gaps with 21 goals across all competitions this season, but Palmer's absence looms large, while few of Chelsea's many attackers have emerged as meaningful players during the campaign.
For the team as a whole, though, whether or not they have the energy levels to pull off an upset that looks like their Club World Cup victory is also up in the air. Fitness levels ebb and flow once fixture congestion gets in the way, so it is not out of the question, while the Blues are unlikely to lack motivation considering what's at stake. PSG themselves have looked fatigued over the course of the season but they got the weekend off in between their matches against Chelsea, a real advantage for a team that already has three goals in their favor.
In the end, the occasion may be an equally important touchpoint for PSG as it is for Chelsea. Luis Enrique's side have the chance to take a page out of the Blues' book that day – they have a three-goal advantage of their own at what is essentially the halftime break of this round of 16 tie. Much as Chelsea did eight months earlier, all PSG need to do is stay the course as they slowly approach the finish line, their probable victory set to become a sure thing as long as they do just that.