The Broncos squelched the skepticism of the public about their quiet start to the offseason with a thunderbolt of a trade Tuesday morning, shaking up the wide-receiver room by acquiring Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins.
Left tackle Garett Bolles mentioned on Jan. 26 that the team needed “a couple more playmakers. Well, they got one.
But they paid a price for the privilege.
And you won’t know until next February — or the February after that, or maybe after that, perhaps — whether it was worth it.
In the moment, everyone adores bold, audacious moves to acquire a playmaker for draft capital. The easiest thing to do is to bust out the pom-poms and say, “Great deal! Yay, Broncos!”
But history only celebrates them WHEN THEY WORK OUT. If such swaps don’t, like the Russell Wilson deal, they become the first line in the CV of regret. Shoot, the Seahawks just won a Super Bowl in part BECAUSE of the Wilson trade.
Since that earthquake of a deal — feted when it happened, excoriated with hindsight, let’s not engage in revisionist history here — the Broncos have done a decent job at making value-oriented trades. The John Franklin-Myers pickup, for one.
Tuesday, they made an Orchard Park-style leap onto the table and paid a steeper price to upgrade their receiver room than two other AFC rivals did for other receivers of comparable production levels in recent years.
THE BRONCOS’ TRADE FOR A RECEIVER VS. PITTSBURGH’S AND BUFFALO’S
This month, the Pittsburgh Steelers acquired Michael Pittman Jr. from the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills picked up D.J. Moore from the Chicago Bears. The Steelers were able to get Pittman for a sixth-round pick, sending a seventh-rounder back to Indianapolis. Buffalo nabbed Moore for a second-round choice, swapping a fifth-rounder to Chicago in the exchange.
The Broncos sent the No. 30, 94 and 130 picks to Miami for Waddle, getting back the No. 111 overall pick in the fourth round. So they moved up 19 spots in Round 4, but are now out of the first and third rounds entirely.
In the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill draft-pick value models, the difference in draft capital in those deals was equivalent to between picks 25 and 26, making Waddle worth a late first-round selection.
In the other deals, Moore was valued at the equivalent of between pick 63 and 64 in the Johnson model and pick 64/65 on the Hill chart. The Steelers took advantage of a salary-cap dump for the Colts; they got Pittman for the equivalent of between pick 216 and pick 217 on the Johnson model or picks 245-257 — at the end of the draft — on the Hill model.
They’re different skill sets and body types, of course. And the Broncos didn’t have Waddle’s exact skill set, although Marvin Mims Jr. had some flashes, without the consistent production.
They already have plenty of bigger targets. At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, Pittman is the big-body type that Sean Payton typically favors. Moore, at 6-feet and 213 pounds, doesn’t have the same length but is stout enough to handle the rigors of the work.
Waddle, at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, relies on speed, quickness and precision. The last receiver of comparable type with whom Payton had a high level of success was Brandin Cooks, who stacked a pair of 1,100-yard seasons with the Saints in 2015 and 2016 before they traded him to New England in 2017.
So, if the Broncos were going to apply some electro-shock paddles to their skill-position group, there weren’t many possibilities.
However, the opportunity cost was steep — especially when comparing the production of the three recently-traded receivers:
Since 2021 (the length of Waddle’s career):
Waddle: 373 catches for 5,039 yards, 26 touchdowns, 13.5 yards per reception
Moore: 400 catches for 5,057 yards, 31 touchdowns, 12.6 yards per reception
Pittman: 445 yards for 4,751 yards, 24 touchdowns, 10.7 yards per reception
Since 2021, per 17 games:
Waddle: 81 catches for 1,098 yards, 6 touchdowns
Moore: 80 catches for 1,011 yards, 5 touchdowns
Pittman: 92 catches for 985 yards, 5 touchdowns
Since 2023:
Waddle: 194 catches for 2,668 yards, 12 touchdowns, 13.8 yards per reception
Moore: 244 catches for 3,012 yards, 6 touchdowns, 12.3 yards per reception
Pittman: 258 catches for 2744 yards, 14 touchdowns, 10.7 yards per reception
Since 2023, per 17 games:
Waddle: 73 catches for 1,008 yards, 5 touchdowns
Moore: 81 catches for 1,004 yards, 7 touchdowns
Pittman: 90 catches for 952 yards, 5 touchdowns
In other words … pretty close. Waddle is the better pass-catcher on a per-reception basis. He also has less time as a WR1, assuming the role after Tyreek Hill’s injury four games into the season.
NOT JUST THE DRAFT CAPITAL, BUT CHEWING UP MORE OF THE CAP BEYOND 2026, TOO
What the Broncos HAVE done is ensured that what they effectively get from their first-round pick this year will help them immediately. That was a valid question from the process leading into the draft, as the chances of finding a player who could provide an immediate boost were remote.
To stand pat and take, say, Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would have meant taking a No. 3 safety who would only play in the event of injury to Talanoa Hufanga or Brandon Jones. Even a running back like Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price would have waited behind J.K. Dobbins after the team’s decision to re-sign the seven-year veteran back last week.
The Broncos don’t take a hit on this year’s cap; Waddle’s hit comes in at $4.9 million. But that goes up to $27 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028. The first year is the last two cost-controlled year for Bo Nix, but the Broncos already ranked 27th in effective cap space for 2027, per OvertheCap. They’ll have some work to do to create flexibility if they want to make some moves — and if they want to work on re-signings of players such as Ja’Quan McMillian, Riley Moss and Marvin Mims Jr.
The use of Mims will be interesting, as well. His special-teams role will be unaffected, but will Waddle slice into his offensive repetitions? It’s hard to read the possibilities now that Davis Webb is assuming the Broncos’ offensive reins, and that’s the other variable that is thrown into the mix. All bets for use of the wide receivers are off.
Still, it’s fair to ask whether Payton and George Paton surrendered too much, compared to what the Steelers and Bills yielded.
And that question cannot be answered today. You’d like it to be, but it can’t. The test of this trade will be whether the Broncos emerge with a Super Bowl.
If Payton and Co. get a ring — one that would make him the first head coach in NFL history to win two Super Bowls with two different franchises, and would make him a Hall of Fame lock — this trade will likely be a primary reason why. And it would take massive, borderline-Canton-caliber return from the draft picks for Miami to tip the scales in its favor, because Lombardis are forever.
But today, you just don’t know.