Trades, no matter the sport, can be some of the most exciting moments for fans. They can also be the most heartbreaking, depending on who or what is traded. Players and/or draft picks can be sent or received, creating excitement, and that excitement usually depends on whether or not fans feel their team "won the trade."
But, how does a team win a trade?
Whenever a trade takes place, it's always subjected to instant evaluation. The general media will discuss why it works for both sides, the media representing each team will talk about why it works for their team, and then war will be waged between fan bases on social media around the "true winner." The beauty of these arguments is that most of them occur before players traded even take the field for their new team, or draft picks are even selected. It could take years to determine how the trade benefited each team.
If social media existed when Brett Favre was traded from the Atlanta Falcons to the Green Bay Packers for a first-round pick, many would probably be saying "the Falcons fleeced the Packers." The reason was that when that trade happened, Favre was considered a third-string nobody. Many Packers fans reacted negatively to this "gamble" by new GM Ron Wolf. A first-round pick for a backup quarterback? The couch GMs would've been circling the wagons around torching the Packers while throwing a ticker-tape parade for the Falcons.
Of course, we all know what happened after. Brett Favre went on to play for 16 seasons in a Packers uniform, winning three NFL MVP awards and a Super Bowl. On the other side, the Falcons used that first-round pick to select running back Tony Smith, who only played for three seasons in the NFL, mostly on special teams. So, in hindsight, it was the Packers who more or less robbed the Falcons blind. When Brett Favre's Packers career came to an end, they traded him to the Jets for a draft pick that they ended up using to trade up and draft Clay Matthews. So, one could argue that Matthews could technically be tacked on to that trade compensation from Atlanta. But when the trade happened in 1992, you could see the possible benefit to both teams. The Packers got a raw young quarterback to develop with a possible high ceiling, while the Falcons got a first-round pick to hopefully draft a key contributor.
Let's fast-forward 34 years to today. A little over a week ago, the Packers traded Rashan Gary to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2027 4th round pick, in what, to Packer fans, was a shocking trade. It was shocking for the fact that only a few days earlier, it appeared that the Packers had just flat-out released Gary—no compensation in return, and a boatload of dead cap to pay off. So, to Packer fans, and the Packers in general, this was an easy win, a 4th round pick, and saved salary cap space for a guy we thought we were releasing? An absolute win for the team now.
On the Cowboys' side, Rashan Gary restructured his contract to cost Dallas less money, so they just landed a decent pass rusher for a lower price than they would've had to pay in free agency, and it only cost them an early day 3 pick. That could be a small win for them as well, for now.
In theory, this is how all trades should be from the start. Each team receives equal compensation for what they're parting with. Sometimes, that doesn't always work out, given certain circumstances where a player may no longer want to play for a team for contractual or personal reasons. In those cases, the buyer can have a bit of leverage in the trade, in that the seller needs to offload the player or face further drama or financial implications. But other than that, the true "winner" of a trade shouldn't truly be determined until the terms fully take effect and mature.
So, why the need to argue victory immediately after?
We live in a world where many depend on instant gratification, especially in the sports world. Fans want the excitement now, not later. And when they can picture that excitement, and put a name and a face to it, whereas with a draft pick, you are essentially looking at "Player TBD." They don't have the patience to see what may come from a draft pick or a young player who needs some time to develop. In the 1992 case of Brett Favre for a first-round pick, that trade, when you factor in Clay Matthews being the result of trading Favre away, ended up being a 27-year investment that ended when the Packers let Matthews walk in 2019.
The obsession with winning trades from the moment the news breaks isn't going away. It will always be out there, from major news outlets down to the social media comment sections. What feels like a victory in the moment is more an emotional snapshot than the full story. Trades aren't won in the headlines; they're won with on-field performances and other outcomes that no one can fully predict. Until that time comes, the proverbial "trade winner" exists more in the fans' imaginations than reality.