Rudy Gobert bluntly answered my question on Tuesday about the lack of offensive ball movement leading to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ defensive drop-off.
“I don’t think it should be that way, but for us, I think it is that way,” he said. “I think our offense still impacts a little bit too much of our defense. … We do know that when our mindset is focused on defense, and we don’t worry too much about the offense, naturally, the offense is better; it’s a paradox. The less we worry about offense, the better it is.”
Rudy Gobert on the Wolves ball movement affecting the Wolves defense
“I don’t think it should be that way, but for us I think it is that way. I think our offense still impacts a little bit too much of our defense… we do know that when our mindset is focused on defense and we… pic.twitter.com/RKUq7rfvQz
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) March 17, 2026
A few minutes later, Jaden McDaniels agreed with Gobert when I asked him the same question.
“I guess you could say that a little bit, probably just puts a bunch of energy into all of us when we’re touching the ball,” he said, “and then makes us want to sprint back for whoever is shooting the shot and being a team player, really.”
Jaden McDaniels on the Wolves offensive ball movement affecting their defense
“I guess you could say that a little bit, probably just puts a bunch of energy into all of us when we’re touching the ball and then makes us want to sprint back for whoever is shooting the shot and… pic.twitter.com/bcSYiuLo67
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) March 17, 2026
Minnesota’s ball movement seems to affect its defense, which makes sense. Everyone who has played pickup basketball knows the feeling of getting paired with the person who doesn’t pass. After a certain number of possessions without touching the ball, everyone has a breaking point and disengages. That also seems to be the case for the Wolves, or at least, Minnesota’s players say there is a correlation.
Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle anchor Minnesota’s offense. They combine for 56.6% of the Wolves’ total usage while on the court. Meaning over half of the plays on offense end with Randle or Edwards ending the possession with a shot or turnover.
Edwards is third in the NBA in isolation plays, with 23.9% of his possessions being straight isolation plays. Meanwhile, Randle ranks tenth at 15.6%. The math says this results in 22.4% of Minnesota’s offense when Randle or Edwards are on the court, which is an isolation play.
That’s essentially the issue with Minnesota’s offense. No other team in the NBA averages even close to this much isolation by their top two offensive players, and in isolation, the ball movement is not as strong as when Chris Finch draws up set plays or in other sets.
It has resulted in the Timberwolves averaging 26.1 assists per game, which ranks 16th, despite playing at the 10th-fastest pace in the league. The 26.1 assists are a result of the Wolves assisting on just 61.2% of their made baskets, which stems from isolation-heavy play: the player falling for the isolation is trying to break down the defense alone.
When looking at total team statistics, though, it’s hard to find numbers that support the argument that iso-heavy play leads to less ball movement, which in turn leads to a drop in defense. Assist percentage is usually the best indicator of ball movement we have.
In wins, Minnesota’s assist percentage is 61.8%. However, it’s just 60.1% in losses, a 1.7% drop. Ultimately, that’s negligible, especially considering the Wolves’ defensive rating drops by 15.6 points in losses.
We can also look at players’ total passes to and from in games. Edwards and Randle receive 33.2% of the team’s total passes, but are only responsible for passing on 25.9% of the team’s passes. While that number tends to correlate, it’s actually pretty remarkable that they have such a high pass percentage given their usage and isolation rates. The NBA also doesn’t track passes in losses versus wins, so we don’t know if the percentages change in those situations.
That’s where it’s so hard to link ball movement to defense. There isn’t clear-cut data that suggests it matters. However, most people know that feeling of not touching the ball. At least in pickup, it can lead to a drop in engagement across the court. Wolves fans can also almost sense when players become disengaged on the court. The body language and the frustration sometimes can come through the TV.
Perhaps the strongest evidence that this is a problem for the Wolves is that their players acknowledge the lack of ball movement affects the team, and it’s not new, either.
Here’s McDaniels speaking on the same subject in December of 2024: “Making sure everyone’s touching the ball or even trying to get (them) easy looks, just to give them that energy to make them want to come down and play defense.”
Jaden McDaniels on ball movement sparking defense
“Making sure everyone’s touching the ball or even trying to get (them) easy looks, just to give them that energy to make them want to come down and play defense”#BringTheNice #wolvesback pic.twitter.com/ZGnIQPyo4V
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) December 12, 2024
Likewise, here’s Gobert from December of 2024: “I think it’s about feeling connected. … Whatever you do in life, when you feel connected, you’re more likely to give your best. … When we are disconnected at times offensively, I think it carries over to the defense.”
Rudy Gobert on offensive ball movement helping the defense
“I think it’s about feeling connected… whatever you do in life, when you feel connected you’re more likely to give your best… when we are disconnected at times offensively I think it carries over to the defense” pic.twitter.com/xJbG0dgSpl
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) December 21, 2024
Truth be told, the problem has spanned seasons. For the tertiary players on the offensive side of the ball, simply touching the ball and taking a dribble can make them feel more involved, which then transfers to the defense.
For the Timberwolves to hit their peak, they need to understand the importance of this movement, regardless of whether it shows up on the stat sheet. With just 13 games remaining, time is running out to solve this problem. Still, the Wolves have proven they can adjust in a hurry. There’s no better time to do that than now.