A struggling Manchester City side head to Wembley to face Arsenal in the League Cup final.
The Blues will arrive on the back of a poor run, with two defeats and two draws in their last five matches across all competitions.
In contrast, Arsenal will come into the game full of confidence, with their last defeat dating back to 25 January against Manchester United.
With Arsenal most likely winners of the Premier League title, City will shift their focus to the cup competitions, aiming to salvage silverware from the season.
This final could provide a huge psychological boost for City while dealing a significant blow to Arsenal.
A strong performance here might shift some momentum, but the reality remains steep, Arsenal hold a nine-point lead with just eight games left, while City still have to navigate tough fixtures against Chelsea away and Arsenal at home.
A Point Shared in North London
The last time these two sides met, it ended in a closely contested 1–1 draw at the Emirates.
City were a very different side back then compared to now, while Mikel Arteta, who recently spoke about what is at stake in the Carabao Cup final, has largely remained consistent with his team selection.
Erling Haaland opened the scoring for City with a swift counter-attack, largely driven by Tijjani Reijnders. After receiving the ball from Haaland in his own half.
Reijnders carried it all the way to the edge of the Arsenal box before playing it back to Haaland, who took a touch and finished past David Raya.
After taking the lead, City dropped into a low block, prioritising defensive solidity and numbers at the back. Fatigue also played a role, with the players having had just two days’ rest following their Champions League fixture against Napoli.
Arsenal posed a constant threat, attacking relentlessly and forcing a series of saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma.
In the 57th minute, Jeremy Doku carried the ball from City’s box to the halfway line before slipping a pass through to Haaland. With Phil Foden free for a simple tap-in, Haaland opted to shoot instead, striking straight at Raya.
In the 90+3rd minute, Eberechi Eze lofted a ball over the City defence to pick out Gabriel Martinelli’s run, and he calmly chipped it over Donnarumma, who was caught in no man’s land.
That late Martinelli goal meant City were forced to settle for just a point at the Emirates.
Clean Sheet Problems Persist
City have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games, which is surprising given how well their defenders have been performing.
It suggests that opponents are capitalising on brief lapses in concentration and costly individual mistakes.
Arsenal’s last blank came in a goalless draw away at Nottingham Forest, and they have scored 20 goals in their last nine games across all competitions.
In contrast, City have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, a concerning return for a side still competing across multiple domestic competitions.
Marc Guehi and Abdukodir Khusanov have impressed as a defensive pairing, but football is a collective effort, and they will need stronger support from the rest of the team to maintain defensive solidity.
It will be interesting to see which combination Pep Guardiola, who has embraced the honour and challenge of a cup final, opts for from Ruben Dias, Guehi, and Khusanov, especially against an Arsenal side so dangerous from set-pieces.
There is also a huge possibility of all three starting, with Khusanov deployed at right-back to add defensive security.
Selection Calls Ahead of Wembley
This match is likely to see several rotations, with James Trafford expected to start ahead of Donnarumma, as he has done throughout the tournament, including in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Newcastle.
Reijnders should partner Rodri in midfield, with Doku, Rayan Cherki, Foden and Haaland forming the attacking line.
Nico Gonzalez, Nico O’Reilly and Antoine Semenyo could be introduced around the 60th minute to add physicality and fresh energy, particularly if City are protecting a lead.
Bernardo Silva could also partner Rodri instead of Reijnders, but after his lapse in judgement that led to a red card against Real Madrid, it would be harsh to start him ahead of Reijnders.
From Star Man to Uncertainty
Phil Foden has struggled to replicate the consistency of his sensational 2023/24 campaign, where he won the PFA Player of the Year and played a key role in City’s fourth consecutive Premier League title.
Last season, the player also faced challenges with his mental health, as he revealed in interviews, alongside dealing with an ankle injury that further disrupted his form.
This season, he began in a deeper role, focusing more on linking defence with attack and contributing through pre-assists and assists, rather than goals.
This contrasts with previous seasons, where he operated higher up the pitch, regularly getting into scoring positions and contributing directly with goals.
He broke into the first team as a left winger, later operated as a false nine, and then evolved into a right-sided attacker who drifted inside, receiving the ball in the right half-space before producing his trademark turn and far-post finishes.
At the start of this season, many fans described this as his “final evolution”, a phase where he emerged as a more complete and rounded player, seamlessly operating in a number eight role.
If he regains his confidence, it would be extremely difficult for Pep to leave him out, given the quality he brings at his best.
I would like to see him start this game, though it seems unlikely after being an unused substitute in both legs against Madrid, but perhaps that’s exactly why a change in the lineup is needed.