Info icon
This page contains affiliate links and we may earn a commission from any products or services you buy.
The Carabao Cup is obviously an important tournament in its own right.
But this one feels more like a dress rehearsal or the chance to strike a psychological blow for bigger things ahead.
While Arsenal have stolen a march on Manchester City in the title race, it’s not done yet.
If City win their game in hand and then beat Arsenal at the Etihad next month, Pep Guardiola’s men have the opportunity to close the nine-point gap to just three.
And should City win Sunday’s showdown at Wembley, the Gunners’ feeling of being hunted down by the team who have been there and done it so many times before would only intensify.
Conversely, if Arsenal lift the silverware at Wembley, that would give them a huge confidence boost and further reinforce the idea that this is their season.
We’ll enjoy the game in its own right but everyone knows there is a bigger picture too.
How to watch Arsenal v Man City
Arsenal v Man City kicks off at 16:30 GMT on Sunday, March 22 at Wembley Stadium. The game will be shown live on Sky Sports Football and ITV 1, with coverage starting from 15:30.
BBC Radio 5 Live and TalkSPORT will provide full match commentary.
Arsenal team news
Mikel Arteta will assess defender Jurien Timber and midfielder Martin Odegaard after a further training session on Saturday.
Skipper Odegaard hasn’t played since last month’s draw against Brentford while Timber went off in last weekend’s win at Everton.
MIke Merino remains sidelined but beyond that Arsenal have a clean bill of health.
Kepa Arrizabalaga has played every minute of Arsenal’s run to the final and will likely start in goal.
Arsenal expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Arrizabalaga; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Trossard; Havertz.
Man City team news
Guardiola revealed on Friday that James Trafford will continue to be his man between the sticks in this tournament so the Englishman comes in for Gianluigi Donnarumma.
One enforced change is that January transfer window signing Marc Guehi is ineligible.
Josko Gvardiol remains sidelined so Guardiola has to decide whether to go with Ruben Dias and Abdukodir Khusanov as his central defensive pair or turn to the experience of John Stones.
There are plenty of options further forward but Ryan Cherki may get the nod ahead of Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden.
Man City expected line-up
(4-3-3) Trafford; Nunes, Dias, Khusanov, Ait-Nouri; Rodri, O’Reilly, Silva; Semenyo, Cherki, Haaland.
Arsenal v Man City stats
– Mikel Arteta has won just one major trophy at Arsenal, with the Gunners beating Chelsea 2-1 behind closed doors in the 2020 FA Cup final.
– Since that 2020 win, Pep Guardiola has led Man City to four league titles, one FA Cup, one EFL Cup and a Champions League trophy.
– Arsenal are looking to win the EFL Cup for the third time, after victories in 1987 and 1993.
– The Gunners have lost more League Cup finals than any other side (six), most recently in 2018 against Guardiola’s City.
– City have won eight of their nine League Cup finals, with only Liverpool winning the competition more often (10). They have won each of their last seven League Cup finals, since a loss to Wolves in 1974.
– Man City have lost their last two major finals, both in the FA Cup in 2024 (vs Manchester United) and 2025 (vs Crystal Palace). They have never previously lost three consecutive major final appearances.
– Arteta has never lost at Wembley with Arsenal as either a player (W3 D1) or a manager (W2 D2), going on to win on penalties after all three of those draws.
– Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last three games against Arsenal in all competitions. However, he has never scored in six appearances at Wembley so far in his City career.
Arsenal v Man City predictions
One stat not mentioned above is that Arteta has won only three of his 16 meetings with Guardiola.
That would seem to tip the balance in favour of City and perhaps make them value at 21/10 to win the match in 90 minutes.
But a glance at more recent head-to-head history shows that Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five Premier League games against City.
Crucially, three of the last four have been draws and that’s why the smart bet here may be the match going to penalties.
That was the case in the 2023 Community Shield when Arsenal won the shootout.
I’m going to back a repeat and take Arsenal to win on penalties. That’s 9/1.
If you want to hedge your bets a little, either team to win on penalties is 9/2.
For a goalscorer bet, step forward Eberechi Eze.
The England midfielder scored the winner for Palace (against City) in last May’s FA Cup final and scored a brilliant goal – also the opener – in the midweek Champions League victory.
Eze to score first is 10/1.