This column is an excerpt from our Section 415 newsletter, where we cover the biggest stories in Bay Area sports each Monday and Friday. To sign up, visit The Standard’snewsletter pageand select Section 415. It’s free to subscribe!
If the Warriors want Steph Curry to play meaningful basketball again, they shouldn’t mind a quick play-in tournament exit this spring.
Curry and coach Steve Kerr have expressed optimism that Golden State can navigate through the play-in and shock a top seed in the first round of the playoffs, but that dream looks increasingly far-fetched.
ADVERTISEMENT
Could the Warriors beat the Blazers in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup? Sure. Could they upset the Suns or Clippers in a make-or-break play-in showdown? Maybe. Do they stand a chance at stunning the Thunder or Spurs? Absolutely not.
Curry, Kerr, and everyone associated with the Warriors might be willing to stretch the definition of “meaningful,” but the next time Golden State can realistically play high-stakes games is 2027.
The Warriors aren’t tanking, but without Curry and Jimmy Butler on the floor, all of the losses over the last seven weeks haven’t exactly been demoralizing. Whether or not anyone in the organization wants to acknowledge it, Golden State is setting itself up to land in the lottery and draft a player who could make critical contributions next season.
With a 33-38 record entering Monday’s game in Dallas, the Warriors have the NBA’s 11th lowest winning percentage. Ending the season in this position would give them a 9.4% chance of securing a top-four draft pick and a 2.0% chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection.
What’s better? A 2.0% chance of picking No. 1 or a 5%-10% chance of beating the Thunder?
Let’s check in with the Dallas Mavericks, who had the fourth-lowest odds to win the lottery since 1985, watched a ping-pong ball bounce their way, and selected Cooper Flagg last year.
Listen toSection 415
2 days ago
A Golden State Warriors player with the ball is closely guarded by a Boston Celtics player during a basketball game.
5 days ago
A woman with curly hair stands at a podium labeled "Oracle Park," speaking into two microphones, with red and black baseball-themed images on the left.
Friday, Mar. 13
A football player wearing a Buccaneers uniform with number 13 holds the ball in his right arm, running with determination on the field.
The Warriors can’t strategize around improving their lottery odds and crossing their fingers for a top-four pick, but ahead of a draft that’s apparently loaded with intriguing prospects, every advantage matters.
Fans will point out that this is an organization that whiffed on James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga with top-10 picks, and that criticism is fair. It’s also a franchise that desperately needs an elite young player, and Golden State is more likely to find that player at pick No. 11 than it is at No. 16 or No. 17.
It would be fun for Warriors fans to see Curry return from his knee injury and lead the team through a pair of play-in matchups and then win a game or two in Oklahoma City or San Antonio. It would be more fun for them to see a healthy Curry, a healthy Butler, and a rising rookie have a legitimate shot as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed next year.
Curry and the Warriors can still play meaningful basketball. But it might have to wait until next year.
Would you rather see the Warriors secure a lottery pick or advance through the play-in tournament to face a top seed in the Western Conference? Let us know in the comments, a new feature exclusively for SF Standard members.