As of Monday, March 23, the Lakers are 46-25, hold third place in the West, and are currently riding a nine-game winning streak.
More importantly, they firmly control the No. 3 seed; they sit effectively three games ahead of Houston by virtue of holding the tiebreaker.
If the season ended today, Los Angeles would open the playoffs against Minnesota, while Houston and Denver would meet in the 4-5 series, and Phoenix would be stuck in the Play-In.
Consequently, the Lakers' pool of realistic first-round opponents is narrowing, with Minnesota emerging as the most likely matchup.
Denver and Houston remain in contention, however, as a single loss separates the fourth through sixth seeds.
Best possible opponent: Minnesota Timberwolves
Credit AP - Scanpix
If the Lakers could choose one realistic opponent today, it should probably be Minnesota.
This is primarily because Los Angeles has already demonstrated its ability to navigate this matchup.
By sweeping the season series and securing the tiebreaker, the Lakers have proven that their success is a consistent pattern rather than a fluke of scheduling or shooting.
The Lakers have consistently looked comfortable attacking Minnesota's defense with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves handling the creation burden, and they have not seemed overwhelmed by the Wolves' size.
Minnesota also has a major question hovering over it right now. Anthony Edwards is dealing with right knee inflammation, and the Timberwolves announced he will be re-evaluated in 1-2 weeks.
Even if Edwards returns by the start of the playoffs, any missed rhythm at the end of the regular season matters when you are preparing to face a team as star-heavy as the Lakers.
There is another factor, too: Minnesota's closing schedule is far from easy.
The Wolves still have Boston on Sunday, then Houston twice, plus road games against Detroit, Philadelphia, Indiana, and Orlando. That makes it harder for them to stabilize their seeding and arrive in peak form.
The caution here is obvious. Edwards can still swing a series by himself, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle make the Lakers work physically, and Minnesota has been winning plenty even lately.
But among the serious first-round options, this is the matchup the Lakers should feel best about.
Most manageable alternative: Houston Rockets
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Houston would be the next-most appealing matchup.
While the 43-27 Rockets are a legitimate threat, they represent a manageable challenge.
But for the Lakers, Houston still feels more playable than Denver or Phoenix.
Several factors favor the Lakers: they own the tiebreaker, which provides crucial breathing room in the standings, and the recent head-to-head trends are encouraging.
The Lakers lost badly on Christmas, but they responded by beating Houston 100-92 and 124-116 in back-to-back road games this week.
This recent success suggests that the Lakers have adapted to Houston's style since their lopsided loss in December.
Third, Houston is still a relatively young playoff team. Durant brings the late-game shotmaking, and Sengun is a real offensive hub, but there is still a difference between being dangerous and being fully playoff-proof.
The Lakers, with LeBron James and Doncic, have the kind of half-court shot creation that often decides tight first-round games.
The concern is Houston's athleticism. Thompson is a problem, Sengun can punish switches, and the Rockets' remaining schedule–which includes Minnesota, Phoenix, Golden State, and New York–could sharpen them for the intensity of the postseason.
Still, if the Lakers land Houston, that is a series they should welcome rather than fear.
Worst possible opponent: Phoenix Suns
Credit AP - Scanpix
This one is straightforward.
Phoenix has been the Lakers' most difficult matchup. A 1-3 season record reveals vulnerabilities–namely, struggling against multiple shot creators and high-end wing scoring–that could become fatal in a seven-game series.
Phoenix is also hard to read, which is part of what makes it dangerous.
On one hand, the Suns have lost five straight after falling to Milwaukee on Saturday, with Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale among the missing players.
On the other hand, that same unpredictability would make them a nightmare as a lower-seed opponent. Teams with Booker, Jalen Green, and a high-end scoring ceiling are exactly the kind of opponent top seeds hate seeing too early.
The Suns' schedule is brutal enough that they may stay in the Play-In: Denver, Houston, Dallas, the Lakers, and Oklahoma City are all still ahead.
But if they survive that path and line up against Los Angeles, the regular season says they are the team the Lakers have handled worst.
The truly scary opponent: Denver Nuggets
Credit IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect - Scanpix
If Phoenix is the "bad results" answer, Denver is the "you still don't want that smoke" answer.
Admittedly, the Lakers boast a 2-1 season record against the Nuggets, including an overtime victory on March 14 secured by a Doncic game-winner.
Those wins matter, and they show the matchup is no longer a mental block.
But Nikola Jokic is still Nikola Jokic, and that alone keeps Denver in the worst-case conversation.
Denver's 43-28 record is deceptive due to various injuries; however, recent wins over Houston and Toronto suggest they are regaining their form.
Denver's finishing schedule is also favorable enough to let them climb: Portland, Phoenix, Dallas, Utah twice, Golden State, Portland again, and Memphis are all still on the board, though there are also two tough Spurs games and one against Oklahoma City.
If they get healthy and move into a different slot, they become the opponent no contender wants to see early, including the Lakers.
Ultimately, Denver remains the most formidable threat. Despite the Lakers' regular-season success against them, a veteran team led by Jokic and Jamal Murray can transform any series into a volatile coin flip.
Final ranking
Right now, the Lakers should want the bracket to break like this:
Best opponent: Minnesota Timberwolves
Second-best: Houston Rockets
Worst by matchup results: Phoenix Suns
Worst by playoff danger: Denver Nuggets
If the postseason started today, the Lakers would get the Wolves, and that is probably the draw they should be happiest with.
They swept Minnesota, own the tiebreaker, and the Wolves are navigating Anthony Edwards' knee issue at the worst possible time.
However, should the standings shift, Denver remains the team to avoid, while Phoenix represents a volatile wild card that the Lakers have yet to consistently solve.
Nojus Stankevičius
Nojus Stankevičius began his basketball writing journey in 2023, when he started studying Journalism at Vilnius University. In 2024, he participated in the BasketNews Academy. Then, a year later, in 2025, he officially joined BasketNews as a Daily Writer, marking the beginning of his professional career in sports journalism.
About author
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