Chelsea’s pursuit of Champions League football is not crucial simply because the Blues want to be playing football at the top level, but because it could cost the club a whopping £300m.
Currently, Chelsea sit in sixth place, and if the season ended right now, they would miss out on a place in the Champions League. Such an eventuality would plunge Liam Rosenior’s future as manager into doubt.
There have been differing reports over Rosenior’s future. Fabrizio Romano suggests failure to qualify for the Champions League could see Rosenior depart, while some suggest Rosenior will get the summer.
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There have also been some reports highlighting how much Chelsea will miss out on financially if the club fails to qualify for the Champions League. This week, Sky Sports said £100m. But it is more than that.
Chelsea could miss out on £300m without the Champions League
GRV’s Football Finances expert Adam Williams is across the subject. He explains why Chelsea, who made £36.9m from the Champions League’s actual matches this season, could miss out on as much as £300m.
“For Chelsea, the majority of their revenue from the Champions League is decided even before a ball is kicked. This season they earned about £50m from the flat participation fee and UEFA’s value pillar.
“This is dictated by five and 10-year coefficients, and the value of the UK’s TV deal for the competition. They got around £30m for wins and draws in the league phase, a league ranking and qualification bonus.
Chelsea co-owner Todd Boehly
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“If you take that as a baseline, Chelsea miss out on £50m in a worst-case scenario and closer to £100m in a best-case scenario from the league phase. If you win the Champions League, they’re looking at £150m+.
“But you also get the Super Cup and – and this is the difference these days – qualification for the Club World Cup. Add in all those factors and you’re potentially talking up to £250m,” Williams continued.
“Then, you add in matchday income from a minimum of four games at Stamford Bridge, potentially seven, and that’s nearer £280m. A retail boom, bonuses from sponsors mean a dream scenario, £300m in total.”
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Failure to achieve fifth place, then, is massive for the club’s coffers and Chelsea’s ability to obey the rules. The Blues have already received a Premier League fine of £10.75m and are awaiting a fine from The FA.
Then, there is a penalty from UEFA that means Chelsea’s qualification is even more poignant. Williams explains that qualifying for the Europa League or even the Conference League is a massive drop-off.
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“It’s difficult to put an exact figure on how much they would miss out on. There are just so many variables. At the low end, it’s £50m in prize money plus, say, £20m in matchday and other factors, so £70m all in all.
“In the Europa League, the minimum is about £13m in a worst-case, £40m in a best case, plus matchday income as well. In the Conference League, it’s peanuts – it can potentially cost you more than you earn.
“Chelsea specifically have UEFA’s financial targets to meet after they breached the spending rules last season too. They do have a performance-linked contract structure that will protect them to a degree.
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“That is, if they fail to qualify for the Champions League, but hitting those targets gets exponentially harder if you are in one of the more junior UEFA competitions,” Williams added, on Chelsea’s issues.
“Despite what the club says, I am very confident that they are under pressure to sell players because of the UEFA settlement, and the scale of those sales will intensify if they’re not in the Champions League.”
If Chelsea fail to qualify for the Champions League, then, it will mean Boehly is searching for additional revenue streams and the likeliest one will be the sale of some of their best players, almost an exodus.
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