I write a companion piece for The Crawfish Boxes called “In the lab.” The bent of the articles are similar. Essentially, I am a data nerd. Four of my five books relied heavily on complex statistics. I literally swim in data at work as well. Who the heck knows, maybe I am somewhere on the spectrum. Maybe that explains my strange fascination with numbers. The humor of it all is that while I am good at mental math, I literally suck at Algebra and Geometry.
I say all of this because the UFL is experimenting with some interesting rules changes that just might trickle their way into the NFL. They have adopted two rules already that are bound to have a pretty profound effect on games and offer new opportunities in data. The first major change is the four point field goal. Kickers that kick a field goal beyond 60 yards will be awarded a fourth point. They also will not allow teams to punt once they pass the 50 yard line.
The UFL also banned the tush push, but that is less interesting. Supposedly, they were also toying with the idea of giving a team an opportunity at a three point conversion play from the seven or eight yard line. All of these rules changes are designed to give teams more options to stay in football games. The longer a game is competitive the longer fans tune in. Eventually, ratings go up in general.
Obviously, not everyone is on board. I was listening to one national commentator (Andy Gresh) who was like old man yelling at cloud. Callers correctly pointed out that such rules changes will impact strategy. The commentator went on a several minute tirade about data nerds and how we are ruining sports. On a certain level I get it. Our information has helped teams evolve their strategy. When one team experiences success then they all start to change their strategy.
We’ve seen in baseball where teams offensive strategy has moved away from small ball and played more for the three run homer. There are far fewer sacrifice bunts. There are far fewer hit and run attempts. There are far fewer stolen base attempts. Strikeouts are up. Walks are up. So, the league felt it necessary to change some rules to inject more excitement into the game.
Basketball has seen fewer mid range jumpers than when most of us were growing up. Teams focus on three pointers and transition hoops. Like in baseball, fans decry the absence of the mid range game. Shooting percentages are down overall because teams are attempting more threes. Yet, scoring is considerably higher overall than it was in the 1990s. It is simply a stylistic change some fans don’t like.
Obviously, this is a football site. The NFL has not been immune to the data revolution. Teams began to realize that going for it on fourth down much more often and especially near the goal line was beneficial in the long run. So, some teams (like say the Detroit Lions) go for it on practically every opportunity. The tush push itself was a triumph of data. The Eagles figured out they were far more successful with that than traditional running plays on third and fourth and short.
When I heard the bloviating about data nerds I simply had to call in. Obviously, I do not work for any of the teams, but the concept here is not that difficult to figure out. The data analysts provide information. That is their job. The good ones provide as much as humanly possible. They break down every possible scenario and get as representative a sample as possible. Those are big boy words that mean that the information needs to be relevant.
That is where the data analyst’s job stops. That’s is what I told the bloviating deejay. Coaches and executives choose how to use the information given to them. I’d point out that as long as sports have been played, there has always been data analysis. The only difference is that the data itself and the methods used to gather and organize the data are much more advanced. That might actually change the data some, but it doesn’t change the relationship between those gathering the data and those using it.
Coaches have to synthesize the data and how their team is playing on that day. There was a time this last season where you could have given the Texans 100 plays inside the five yard line. They weren’t scoring. A head coach has to consider that when deciding whether to go for it. On the four point field goal, they have to consider weather and field conditions, the actual ability of their kicker, and the fall out from missing the field goal in terms of field position. There are never hard and fast rules.
Again, I am a data nerd. I am in favor of more data rather than less. However, it takes some smart people to figure out the efficacy of that data. If these rules changes make it to the NFL it will be an additional opportunity for teams to gain a strategic advantage. That means data. Obviously, the data on 60 yard field goals is a limited sub-group, but we have plenty of fourth down data. May the smartest team win.