One upset defeat over these final 11 games could be the difference between playoffs and Play-In for the Toronto Raptors.
At the time of writing, the Raptors have a one-and-a-half game gap over the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers.
Toronto is the only one of the middle six teams priced at plus-money on FanDuel to end up in the Play-In Tournament.
At -1100 to make the playoffs, the trendline is on the up for the Raptors.
But just under two weeks ago, they dipped into the Play-In mix for the first time since November 11th until a five and six-game losing streak from Miami and Orlando buoyed them back up.
Toronto only has three games remaining against tanking teams and can ill afford a losing streak of their own.
The margins are thin; these next three weeks are essentially postseason games.
To the credit of the Raptors though, they hold a positive or neutral tiebreaker position against all those teams except Philly.
As a refresher, here are the tiebreaker rules for seeding:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Is one a division leader?
3. Division won-lost percentage (only if teams are in the same division)
4. Conference won-lost percentage
The Sixers split the season series 2-2 but own a better Atlantic record than Toronto. They’d win the tiebreaker.
Here’s how they stack up against the other four:
Atlanta – Swept the season series 4-0
Charlotte – Split the season series 2-2, but have a 29-16 conference record versus their 22-22
Miami – Currently up 2-0 and have a 29-16 versus 22-20 lead in conference record
Orlando – Currently tied 1-1 with one game in hand on Sunday; the winner earns the tiebreaker
If Toronto wins enough games, tiebreakers won’t come into play at all.
But with a few tough games on the slate, like the LA Clippers tonight, the Raptors need that added advantage.
A couple of players are currently listed as questionable for Toronto; their absence will be felt if they can’t suit up.
Here are three bets for tonight I have my eye on.
**Scottie Barnes 6+ assists (+126)**
Coming out of the All-Star Break, Barnes was putting up below-average stats across the board.
In his first 10 games, these were his averages:
15.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists
But since the Dejounte Murray incident, a switch has been flicked for the DPOY candidate.
He’s averaged the following over the past six games:
16.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.5 assists
He’s shooting 57.1 from the field, 25.0 from deep and 83.3 percent from the line – excellent splits.
I think that New Orleans game galvanized him and the team; it was the perfect wake-up call to remind them the postseason isn’t guaranteed.
The jump to 6.5 assists is eye-popping but I think there’s unearthed value considering that he played under 30 minutes in 3-of-4 games over this road trip.
Tonight’s game shapes up to be a competitive battle and I expect him to have his regular allotment of minutes.
It’s also a good spot for his passing considering LA’s transition defence data.
As per Cleaning The Glass, the Clippers give up the third-most points per play in transition and the most off of live rebounds.
Barnes is the king of turning defence to offence and can exploit LA’s weaknesses tonight.
12 of his 39 dimes have been on the fastbreak since New Orleans.
**Kawhi Leonard under 27.5 points (-130)**
At the time of writing, Leonard is still listed as questionable.
I’d encourage you to bet this anyways and let it void should he end up sidelined.
Ever since leaving the 2019 championship team, Leonard and his LA Clippers have dominated his former team.
They’re 8-1 when The Klaw has been active.
What is surprising to see though, he’s averaged just 18.4 ppg over those nine games.
He’s averaged 25.1 ppg over his six-year career in LA.
Whether it’s him going easy against his old team or the Raptors making a point to stifle him, he has a seven-point drop-off, a 27 percent dip in scoring.
Should he play, Barnes will likely shadow him for the bulk of the night.
Toronto’s franchise player has performed at an All-Defensive Team level and has consistently made scoring difficult for his opponents.
Don’t forget the Raptors also have a habit of overloading against the opponent’s superstar.
The final reason I’m bullish on this bet relates to LA’s health.
This will be just the third time all season Darius Garland, Bennedict Mathurin and John Collins are in the lineup together.
More mouths to feed should equate to less reliance on Leonard’s offence.
**LA Clippers -4**
This final bet is anchored to Leonard’s health once again.
Should he play, I favour them to cover at home.
Since Garland debuted for LA, they’ve gone 8-5 with the fifth-best net rating as per Cleaning The Glass.
Their offence has been particularly deadly – they’ve shot a 58.7 effective field-goal percentage, second in the NBA over that period.
The Raptors currently have three players questionable, but even if they’re all active I still envision this being a tough spot.
It’s the final game of a five-game road trip.
Toronto continues to show they struggle against playoff-bound teams.
Leonard’s track-record proves that there’s a bit of big brother, little brother energy in this matchup.
I can see this being a letdown spot for Toronto as they regroup for a rematch against Dejounte Murray and the Pelicans on homecourt Friday.