After practice on Tuesday, Naz Reid responded to a question about where his game can still grow the most.
“For the most part,” he said, “I would say, more consistency. I’ve been pretty consistent, but if you want to be truly great or the one, two, three, you got to be consistent all the time. … I want to make sure I’m consistent in every aspect that I bring to the table.”
It’s been a story that people have written every year of Reid’s career. When will the peaks and valleys even out into more reliable and consistent play? Reid can win a game almost single-handedly off the bench on a hot shooting night. However, in past seasons, he has had just as many nights where nothing seems to be going right.
This season has felt different, though. The shot seems more consistent, and the effort seems constant. Reid passes the eye test, but does his game check out statistically?
Full disclosure, this is the third time I’ve written some form of this article. However, this year feels different, especially with Reid. The No. 1 thing I look at with Reid when digging into his consistency is how often his shooting, for lack of a better word, is average.
To evaluate that, I looked at the percentage of games in which his true shooting percentage falls between 52.0% and 64.0% from the field, or 6% below and 6% above the league average of 58.0%. From a shooting standpoint, weighting twos, threes, and free throws into a single number (true shooting percentage) is the best way to determine consistency, especially when looking at league-average numbers.
In 2023-24, Naz Reid had just 19 games where he shot between 52.0% and 64.0%; that’s 23.5% of his 81 total games played, on average. With 30 games below 52.0%, which is 37.0%. That leaves 32 games in the above-average range or 40.0%. All the numbers can make this confusing. However, Naz Reid is essentially average or better 63.5% of the time, but is also average or bad 60.5% of the time.
Optimists could look at this and say he’s better more often than not by percentage. However, the numbers show that the Wolves have a near-equal chance that Reid will be great or bad at shooting, and a significantly lower chance that he will just be normal. Adding the above and below average percentages, Reid is on one end of the spectrum in 77.0% of his games in 2023-24. For teams that need consistency, especially scoring off the bench, the volatility of his shot can be far more of a detriment than an asset.
In 2024-25, Reid had just 18 games in the average range, 22.5% of total games, and 28 games below 52.0% or 35.0% of his 80 games. That leaves 34 games above average, or 42.5%. Going off the same logic from before, Reid is on the extremes 77.5% of the time. He’s still not the model of consistency, although he was 1.5% more likely to have an average or above game than in 2023-24.
Naz Reid has had even fewer games in the average zone this season, with just 15. That’s only 21.7% of his 69 games this season. Reid had 31 games below the 52.0%, meaning 44.9% of his games have been below average. That means only 23 games are above average, resulting in 33.3%. That’s 78.2% of total games being on the extremes this season. Despite this season feeling more consistent, it’s still the most inconsistent of the past three years for Reid.
How can this be?
The eye test and vibes test of Reid’s season are completely different from the statistical data, at least regarding his shooting.
On the surface, that suggests Naz Reid is going in the opposite direction. That is, until we add context around his season. Reid started the season in one of the worst slumps of his career, whether that be due to the tragic murder of his sister, having to miss some of camp, or perhaps being out of basketball shape due to the tragedy.
From October to the end of December, Reid had 6 games in the 52-64% true shooting range out of 34 total games, just 17.6% of his games. Meaning in the back half of the season, he has had 9 average games in the last 35, or 25.7%.
Reid’s consistency has been a tale of two seasons. In the first half, he was working himself back into shape and coping with an unimaginable tragedy. In the second half of the season, he has rounded into the most consistent he has been from a shooting standpoint over the last 3 years.
For context, Anthony Edwards has had 16 average true shooting games out of his 58 games played, or 27.6%. That’s why the season has felt so different for Reid. Over the last 35 games since the calendar flipped to 2026, Reid has been nearly as consistent as Edwards, which is a huge improvement and helps us forget the early-season memories.
With the Wolves battling for seeding in the final games before the playoffs, they will ultimately need less of the extreme peaks and valleys and more of the less exciting average, normal play that he has found in the latter half of this season. That’s the next step Naz Reid must take to be a 1-2-3 player in the future.