It has been a tale of two seasons for Julius Randle this year.
At this point in his career, Randle is a well-known commodity. He’s going to get to his mid-range post-up bully-ball fadeaways, distribute kickouts to create shots for teammates, and fluctuate as a jump shooter. He also offers wavering effort on defense.
The Timberwolves are aware of his strengths and weaknesses. Still, given Randle’s recent form and with the playoffs on the horizon, it’s difficult not to raise questions after he struggled against the Oklahoma City Thunder in last year’s Western Conference Finals. He also played an instrumental role in Minnesota’s comeback win over Houston on Wednesday night.
While Randle has made an impact as a second fiddle to Anthony Edwards, Randle may be within an ultimatum as the regular season winds down. Randle needs to prove himself to the Timberwolves at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs to retain the franchise’s trust in the off-season.
Julius Randle looked like an All-Star before the All-Star break. In 56 games, Randle averaged 22.3 points, 7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. He shot 49.2% from the field and 32.5% from three-point range, with a true shooting percentage of 59.9%.
Randle consistently produced for the Timberwolves, fully demonstrating why the Timberwolves elected to re-sign him to a three-year, $100 million contract.
However, since the All-Star break, Randle has been a drastically different player. His efficiency has tanked, his scoring output has decreased, and he no longer looks like the same player we saw in the first 56 games of the season.
In 17 games after the All-Star Break, all of Randle’s individual statistics have decreased. It’s impossible not to raise questions, given Minnesota’s recent instability.
In those games, Randle is averaging just 16.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Shooting 43% from the field and 23.1% from three-point range, with a true shooting of 52.5%.
Much of the regression in Randle’s game is the result of his inability to hit jumpers and convert non-rim attempt paint shots.
Before the All-Star break, Randle was shooting 49.3% on non-rim paint shots. However, since the All-Star break, he’s only shooting 38.7%.
Randle’s three-point shooting was already regressing to his career averages after a hot start to the season from three-point range. Still, his 32.2% mark from beyond the arc pre-All-Star break was more respectable than his post-All-Star break mark of 19%.
Julius Randle is not a prolific three-point shooter. He’s a 33.2% three-point shooter over his 11 seasons in the NBA, and he’s also a lower-volume shooter. Randle has attempted 3.7 three-point shots per game throughout his career, 4.4 this season, and holds a career three-point rate of .249.
However, Randle’s inability to hit touch shots within the paint, his strength within his mid-post touches and middle of the floor touches, has been the largest drop-off and the key indicator of his inefficiencies. Long jumper fluctuations are bound to happen to a player with as low a volume and 33.2% career three-point shooter.
Randle has seen increased defensive attention since Anthony Edwards has been out with knee inflammation. Still, much of the coverages that he has seen has been typical of what he has seen all season. Opponents love to load up on Randle because he takes longer on his crab dribble. They’ll try to sneak up to anticipate his back shoulder turn and disrupt his movement.
Much of those same coverages and trends have stuck; it has just been uneven execution on Randle’s part. Due to Randle’s unique playstyle, the Timberwolves are in a unique situation moving forward. The goal is to get Randle back on track.
Some of his slump could be due to the difficulty of staying consistent throughout an entire regular season. However, if Randle cannot find a way to get back on track for the Timberwolves, it could significantly affect seeding and carry into the playoffs, where teams have countered his unique playstyle in the past.
What the Timberwolves need from Randle is more of what he was able to display late in their chaotic overtime win against Houston on Wednesday.
Julius Randle clutch pull-up midrange jumper pic.twitter.com/dOxAjYngbx
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) March 26, 2026
Anthony Edwards’ imminent return will boost Minnesota’s offense and allow Randle to return to a secondary role. However, Randle should benefit from the increased usage with Edwards out. Others, such as Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu, have capitalized on the opportunity.
Randle has proven doubters wrong throughout his NBA career. Still, his latest test may have greater effects on his immediate career in Minnesota as they attempt to build a championship roster around Anthony Edwards.