Most draftniks believe that the Bears are well-positioned for what they need next month. Drafting 25th overall in Round 1, they can wait and pick the best remaining defensive end, defensive tackle or offensive tackle.
Waiting that long is new around these parts — the Bears haven’t drafted this late in Round 1 since 2011. And just because the Bears can wait for the board to come to them doesn’t mean they should — there are arguments for general manager Ryan Poles and coach Ben Johnson to be more aggressive in Round 1.
Below, we present three scenarios — one extreme, one modest and one predictable — for the Bears to do just that:
They wouldn’t — would they?
Let’s get ridiculous.
Let’s say Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, who many around the league consider the can’t-miss prospect of the draft, slides down the board. It wouldn’t be surprising, given the general low value of his position: since 1992, the highest safeties ever drafted went fifth: Sean Taylor in 2004 and Eric Berry in 2010. Jamal Adams went sixth in 2017.
The Bears need a box safety to pair with free agent pickup Coby Bryant, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen values athleticism, physicality and versatility in his defensive backfield.
What happens if Downs falls all the way to No. 14, which is where Notre Dame standout — and future NFL star — Kyle Hamilton was drafted by the Ravens in 2022? The Ravens are drafting 14th again this year, so they wouldn’t need a safety. That leaves the Buccaneers picking 15th. The Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart, which assigns points to every draft pick to aid trades, lines up perfectly for the Bears to trade up to No. 15. The Bears would send their first-round pick, No. 25, and their own second-round pick, No. 57, to the Bucs.
That’s a remarkable price to pay for someone who doesn’t play quarterback or rush the passer. (The same could be said for trading up for Notre Dame star running back Jeremiyah Love.)
The Bears, though, haven’t picked a first-round defender since Roquan Smith in 2018. Landing a star player on a cheap rookie deal is essential to a defense that will be the NFL’s third-highest paid in 2026 and is projected to be the seventh-highest paid in 2027. If Downs is the future Pro Bowl player many think he could be, he might just be worth it.
A modest move
At No. 25, the Bears will be able to choose from among a group of edge rushers that could include Auburn’s Keldric Faulk, Clemson’s T.J. Parker, Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell, Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, Missouri’s Zion Young and Oklahoma’s R. Mason Thomas. If they wait until Day 2, they’ll have options — NFL Network projects that a whopping 17 edge rushers could be chosen in Rounds 1-3.
That doesn’t mean the Bears should simply sit back and wait for an edge rusher in Round 1.
The teams directly behind should be aggressive in jumping past the Bears to pick an edge rusher. The Bills, at No. 26, haven’t had someone record double-digit sacks since Leonard Floyd three years ago. The 49ers, at No. 27, were dead last in the league in sacks last year.
If the Bears have to use a fourth-round pick to move up from No. 25 to, say No. 22, it’s worth it to get the player they want. The Bears struck gold with safety Eddie Jackson and running back Tarik Cohen in Round 4 nine years ago but otherwise haven’t taken a Pro Bowl player in that round since 2009.
Mr. Move-Back
Poles likes to move down in the draft.
He entered last year having traded down seven times on draft day — and up just once, to pick second-round cornerback Tyrique Stevenson in 2023. That doesn’t count his trade of the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers a month before the 2023 draft.
Last year, Poles dialed it up a notch on Day 2, turning two second-round picks and a third-rounder into three second-rounders when he traded back with the Bills.
It would be no surprise, then to see Poles move back a few spots in Round 1 if the Bears were pleased with the depth at edge rusher, defensive tackle and offensive tackle. It would solve a problem, too — the Bears are thin on picks in the middle of the draft. After their fourth-round pick, No. 129 overall, they’re not slated to draft again for 110 spots.
Trading down just a few spots in Round 1 could land them an extra selection in late Round 3 or early Round 4. Among the scenarios that jibe with Jimmy Johnson’s draft chart: moving down four spots in Round 1 in exchange for the Chiefs’ fourth-round pick (No. 109) or seven spots in exchange for the Seahawks’ third-rounder (No. 96).
If the Cardinals eye a quarterback in Round 1 — where players get fifth-year team options — they could try to jump up from the second pick in Round 2. The Cardinals could package that selection with the first pick of Round 3 for No. 25 overall and the Bears’ fourth-rounder.