Edge rusher is a position that is 100% on the table for the Chicago Bears in the 1st round. Recently, I did a study on why the team has been so bad at identifying capable players at that position over the year, particularly in the 1st round. I found that they often didn’t account for the SPG (Sacks Per Game) metric. All of the prospects they drafted had below-average SPG numbers in college. Meanwhile, Richard Dent had one of the highest sack numbers per game they’ve ever drafted in the Super Bowl era. Go figure.
Still, plenty of people aren’t willing to accept sacks as a proper metric for determining future NFL pass rushers. The popular one these days is pass rush win rate, which is used by analytics experts across the board. Well, Football Insights compiled the latest data on the incoming 2026 draft class.
When comparing this chart to previous 1st round edge rushers going back to 2017, you find that the threshold most of the good ones need to cross is around 18.5%. After that, you start seeing quite a few more draft busts like Dallas Turner, Myles Murphy, Payton Turner, and Lukas Van Ness.
Rank Player Draft Year College Career Win Rate %
1 Myles Garrett 2017 Texas A&M 31.7%
2 Josh Allen 2019 Kentucky 30.3%
3 Laiatu Latu 2024 UCLA 29.1%
4 Chase Young 2020 Ohio State 27.2%
5 Will Anderson Jr. 2023 Alabama 26.2%
6 Nick Bosa 2019 Ohio State 25.5%
7 Will McDonald IV 2023 Iowa State 25.2%
8 Aidan Hutchinson 2022 Michigan 25.0%
9 Micah Parsons 2021 Penn State 23.8%
10 George Karlaftis 2022 Purdue 23.6%
11 Kayvon Thibodeaux 2022 Oregon 22.8%
12 Tyree Wilson 2023 Texas Tech 22.6%
13 Montez Sweat 2019 Mississippi St 22.1%
14 Jaelan Phillips 2021 Miami 21.8%
15 Gregory Rousseau 2021 Miami 21.6%
16 Clelin Ferrell 2019 Clemson 21.3%
17 Felix Anudike-Uzomah 2023 Kansas State 20.5%
18 Jared Verse 2024 Florida State 20.2%
19 Odafe Oweh 2021 Penn State 18.9%
20 Chop Robinson 2024 Penn State 18.8%
21 Brian Burns 2019 Florida State 18.5%
22 Darius Robinson 2024 Missouri 18.4%
23 Joe Tryon-Shoyinka 2021 Washington 18.1%
24 Kwity Paye 2021 Michigan 18.0%
25 Payton Turner 2021 Houston 17.2%
26 Bradley Chubb 2018 NC State 17.2%
27 Jermaine Johnson II 2022 Florida State 16.8%
28 Rashan Gary 2019 Michigan 16.5%
29 Lukas Van Ness 2023 Iowa 16.2%
30 Myles Murphy 2023 Clemson 14.8%
31 Dallas Turner 2024 Alabama 13.6%
32 Marcus Davenport 2018 UTSA 13.5%
33 K’Lavon Chaisson 2020 LSU 13.1%
34 Travon Walker 2022 Georgia 10.1%
The Chicago Bears now have a good idea of who to avoid.
Now, with any data chart, there are outliers. Travon Walker has become a successful pass rusher despite being at the bottom of the list. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Tyree Wilson, and Clelin Ferrell have all been huge disappointments. Yet the trends still hold for the most part. Going by this, we now know the Bears should have some serious misgivings about some of the 1st round edge rushers they’ve been projected to select with that 25th overall pick.
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Zion Young – 10.6%
T.J. Parker – 14.0%
Keldric Faulk – 10.3%
Gabe Jacas – 14.5%
Akheem Mesidor – 14.5%
It’s worth noting that these numbers are calculated over the entire college career. Sometimes it takes players some time to figure it out. So do the numbers change if we just focus on their final seasons?
Zion Young – 17.4%
T.J. Parker – 15.5%
Keldric Faulk – 9.9%
Gabe Jacas – 18.0%
Akheem Mesidor – 18.7%
So you see, Jacas and Mesidor seemed to figure things out a little more towards the end of college. Young improved as well, but is still below average. Faulk and Parker remain underwhelming. We already know the highest scorers, like David Bailey and Rueben Bain, won’t reach the 25th pick. Cashius Howell (19.7%) has a chance, but the Chicago Bears may not like his smaller frame.
The Bears must be careful who they gamble on.
While this edge rusher class is deep in terms of overall talent, finding one has been especially difficult for the Chicago Bears. Seeing this new data makes one wonder if taking one in the 1st round is the best idea. Unless someone big happens to fall, none of the available options will qualify as safe bets. That means they’ll have to gamble on projections or shift their focus to another position with less risk. They have two 2nd round picks in this draft. They can easily use one of those to get the edge-rush help they need.
This comes down to how confident they are that whichever player they target can make the transition. We already saw with Shemar Turner and Dayo Odeyingbo that the Bears aren’t exactly great at pinpointing quality defensive line talent. Having failed to make any additions in free agency this year, it feels like this draft is make-or-break for them. That means being extra careful with who they go after.