The Portland Trail Blazers agreed to rookie extensions with Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara last offseason. The pair signed on to stay with the franchise for another four seasons for $90 million and $81 million respectively. If you ask this writer, they deserved every cent.
This summer, the Blazers have to make calls on Scoot Henderson. If Henderson and the Blazers don’t come to an agreement this summer, he enters the annual exercise of restricted free agency in 2027. He’ll be free to seek a contract elsewhere. The Blazers will have the right to match that offer and retain his services.
Henderson was selected third in 2023. At one stage in the 12 months leading up to the draft, certain pundits suggested Henderson might rival Victor Wembanyama as a presence in the NBA. While that particular fanfare didn’t last long, it did build expectations on the guard from G League Ignite before he was able to prove anything of substance.
I’ve been critical of Henderson over the past two and a half years. Not because I think he lacks talent but because he’s failing to optimize his natural ability. I wouldn’t go as far as using the word squandering but I think he could be considerably better. He has the skill set and the physical tools to be a real player.
Through 151 NBA games, Henderson has averaged 13.4 points on 33.9 percent from three, 41.1 percent from the field, 3.0 boards, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals and 3.0 turnovers. His main assets are his athleticism and the ability to see the court and pass the ball. He’s not a bad shooter either. But turnovers and poor decision making get in the way of point guards becoming elite.
Before suffering a nasty hamstring injury in September, this was going to be the season for Scoot to prove his doubters wrong. But missing the first 51 games of the season was always going to hurt his chances. In the 23 games he has played, he’s averaged 13.9 points on 33.6 percent from three, 41.1 percent from the field, 2.8 boards, 3.9 assists, 0.8 steals and 2.7 turnovers.
Before his return to the court this season, [I set some expectations](/trail-blazers-analysis/106644/scoot-henderson-injury-portland-trail-blazers-stats-shedon-sharpe). Let’s check in to see how he’s measured up.
Henderson has improved his efficiency around the rim from 55 percent to 62 percent, but it’s still not quite there. There’s been no improvement in his short midrange game with shots within 14 feet still at 34 percent. His effective field goal percentage remains around the 50 percent mark. His turnover rate is still at an unacceptable 16.5 percent and his assist rate is 25.4 percent, below last season’s level.
I know the game sample size is small, but the numbers aren’t moving in the right direction. One game Henderson looks like a point guard powerhouse, the next two or three he goes missing or even hurts the team’s chances at winning.
The 22-year-old comes across as passionate, energetic, and personable, but that’s not enough for a team that needs a point guard to be level with the league’s best.
While I’m not calling him a bust, I’m worried that Scoot’s high draft selection might justify some thinking that he should be given more than he’s worth.
Sometimes teams take the wrong player with a high pick. It happens.
Restricted free agency hasn’t been kind to young players in recent years. Last year, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes, Cam Thomas, and Josh Giddey were dragged through what seemed like endless negotiations and posturing with the latter being the only one to receive a deal beyond two years.
With the current CBA and the lack of financial flexibility, restricted free agents are even more beholden to their incumbent team, losing much of the leverage their predecessors might have had. It’s in the player’s best interests to sign the best possible extension 12 months earlier to avoid the stress and likely disappointment associated with the restricted free agent process.
If General Manager Joe Cronin was able to get Henderson for four years and $56 million, I’d stomach it. That $14 million-a-year figure would help the Blazers move his contract if needed. Conversely, if he improves, it’s a good, bordering on a great, deal for someone who’s still only 22. The Blazers would likely be unable to move the guard during the 2026-27 season, given the poison pill complications but after that, it’s a flexible deal.
Some might ask why Sharpe and Camara deserve more money than Henderson. The answer is simple. They’ve both done more to convince me that they’re going to be able to contribute on a consistent basis.
The point may be moot. Even with free agency difficulties, I don’t see Henderson accepting an offer this low.
It’s gotten to the point where I just don’t trust Henderson. He’s just as likely to have a great night as he is potentially costing the Blazers a win. This is not someone I feel comfortable giving a whole lot of money to when franchises need to be triply certain before doling out cash. I really want the good Henderson games to be more than outlier performances. I just worry about this team being encumbered by weighty contracts. It’s not worked out well in the past. There’s hope Henderson can improve but he’s yet to show he’s the type of player who can be relied on, night in, night out.
I know he was taken third in 2023, likely kickstarting Damian Lillard’s initial departure, but that’s no reason to give him more money than he’s worth. Restricted free agency will no doubt be a grueling prospect, but I just couldn’t stomach the Blazers offering Henderson an extension he would actually accept.
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