The amount of stats available to the average fan these days is astounding. Fans have never had it easier finding stats from games. Not only raw stats, but also advanced stats are extremely available for dissecting and comparing prospects. The problem is that the statistical element tends to dominate the narrative for every prospect, to the point that some prospects can be propped up solely on statistical output, without considering other important factors.
Now, don’t get me wrong, the statistical element is important. Players have to be able to produce on the college level to some extent if you expect them to produce at the next level. There also needs to be some context with statistics for players and their statistics. Does a player produce great stats because they’re in their fourth year in college and have learned to dominate college-level athletes and players? Is a player’s statistics underwhelming because they are dealing with an injury? It’s important to make sure those statistics fit into a player’s overall draft profile, and everything is taken in its appropriate context.
So what is the most important draft principle? To me, it boils down to having a correct view of how you view the prospect, and that boils down to this:
**You are drafting a player based on what you believe they will evolve into, not just what they are now.**
If statistics were the only thing that mattered, it would be easy to come up with a statistical equation that could rank every player appropriately. Unfortunately, players come into the league, and some improve, and others don’t. The things that determine how a player improves are also based on a few things outside of just skill. Is the player older? That means there is a bit of a limit on how much better they are likely to get better. It’s why youth will always score better than older players. Some players have much better physical tools, including height, wingspan, etc. Some players have incredible athleticism, like their speed, first step, and their explosion when they jump. Finally, there’s the skill factor. Are you a great shooter? Do you finish well at the rim? Are you a good passer? Do you defend well? Teams that don’t take all of these other factors into account risk ending up with a team of small guards that scored really well in college and then struggled when they got into the league. Looking at you, Walter Clayton Jr.
For the Jazz, things get really simple at the top of this draft. It’s filled with young prospects with an impressive mix of size, athleticism, and skill. All Utah has to do is get lucky, and things won’t be as difficult.