The New York Jets signing of Geno Smith opens good possibilities in the Draft to nab some insurance for 2027. With a veteran in place, New York can now afford to take a calculated flier on a young arm in the mid-to-late rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Finding a Day 3 quarterback who develops into a franchise signal-caller like Dak Prescott is rare. However, certain traditional college stats since 2010 have shown a stronger correlation with success for mid-round passers.
By the Numbers
Day 3 passers since 2010 have a low success rate. Out of the 93 drafted in that span, only Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy have earned the confidence of their franchise.
There are a handful of others that have contributed some meaningful snaps. Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Aidan O’Connell, Sam Howell and Joshua Dobbs have carved out careers as spot starters or reliable backups.
These three factors stand out when looking at potential mid-round quarterbacks:
Starting Experience – Over 30 games started as a minimum threshold
Final Season Efficiency – AY/A of around 8.5, total passer rating minimum of 130, adjusted completion percentage of 75% or greater, TD:INT ratio minimum 2.4:1
Mobility and Pocket Presence – 7% or lower sack rate and 200 or more yards rushing in final collegiate season
Draft Strategy Shift
Justin Fields was traded to the Chiefs for a sixth-round pick. Geno Smith is now locked in as the starter. Brady Cook serves as the current backup, while Bailey Zappe is on a futures contract.
None of those options inspire long-term confidence at the position.
New York’s new offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, will install a timing-based system heavy on West Coast principles including rhythm throws, dig and drag routes, and play-action. This scheme rewards quick processors who deliver the ball with touch and anticipation while staying on schedule.
Top Day 3 Options for the Jets
There are three signal callers that fit into this mold a bit better than the rest of the Day 3 options (ranked in order):
Klubnik sits on the fringe but carries upside. Pavia actually grades highest purely on the numbers, but his undersized frame is a significant concern.
That leaves Joey Aguilar as the most intriguing target.
Aguilar wrapped up his college career after stops at Appalachian State and Tennessee. While many analysts view him as a developmental project, he aligns well with the statistical criteria:
Collegiate Starts – 37
Final Season Efficiency – 156 passer rating, AY/A of 8.9, TD:INT ratio 2.4:1
Mobility and Pocket Presence – Sack rate of 4.94%, 101 yards rushing (below the 200)
Aguilar brings a thick, tough build and showed the ability to play through injury in 2025. The limited final-season rushing isn’t a major red flag given the rhythm-based offense Frank Reich will run. He is currently projected as a Round 6 or 7 pick, with an outside shot at Round 5.
While his draft stock trails Klubnik’s and possibly Pavia’s, the combination of strong numbers, ideal size, and scheme fit should put Aguilar firmly on the Jets’ radar late in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Bottom Line
Finding franchise quarterbacks in the late rounds is extremely difficult. For a team like the Jets that has struggled at the position for years, continuing to take smart swings in the draft is essential.
Joey Aguilar represents a low-cost, low-risk addition who could develop into a meaningful contributor.
Besides, if you keep dropping quarters into the slot machine… eventually it has to pay out, right?
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