We preview Saturday’s FA Cup tie at St. Mary’s with our Southampton vs Arsenal prediction. Can Arsenal seal a semi-final spot in their hunt for another domestic trophy?
Southampton vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer expects Arsenal to advance to the FA Cup’s last four, with 78.1% of the pre-match simulations ending in favour of Mikel Arteta’s side.
Arsenal have progressed from 45 of their last 48 FA Cup ties against teams from outside the Premier League, only losing to Blackburn in 2012–13, Nottingham Forest in 2017–18, and Forest again in 2021–22.
Southampton have lost each of their last five FA Cup quarter-finals against top-flight opposition, including against Arsenal in 1978–79. Saints last progressed from such a tie back in 1962-63 as a second-tier club, edging Nottingham Forest after two replays.
After going into the international break with a disappointing 2–0 defeat to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final, Arsenal return to action with one goal in mind: getting back to Wembley.
Nico O’Reilly’s brace sealed a City win that prolonged Mikel Arteta’s near six-year silverware drought at the Emirates, but Arsenal can get back on track in a competition they last won in August 2020.
That FA Cup is the only major honour of Arteta’s tenure thus far, and as they look to book a place in the last four – where they could again meet City – Arsenal face a Southampton side on a good run of form themselves.
Saints are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches, featuring nine victories, across a spell stretching back to mid-January and taking Tonda Eckert’s side from 15th to sixth in the Championship table.
Southampton have also shaken things up in the FA Cup, and are the last second-tier side standing following their win over Premier League side Fulham in the fifth round at Craven Cottage.
Ross Stewart’s 91st-minute penalty proved the difference in west London, as Southampton won an FA Cup fifth-round tie against higher-tier opposition for the first time since beating Sheffield United in March 1963.
fulham 0-1 southampton stats fa cup
Southampton followed up that shock result with a draw at West Brom before three straight victories over Coventry, Norwich, and, last time out, Oxford United, winning 2–0 via early goals from Cyle Larin and Shea Charles.
Although Saints come into this clash in season-best form, they face an Arsenal side who will be wounded from last month’s EFL Cup final defeat to City and keen to continue their push for a treble.
Arsenal failed to score in a major final for just the third time across the 13 they’ve played in since 2000, despite becoming the first team to hit the woodwork twice in an EFL Cup decider since Liverpool – who went on to win – against Cardiff City in 2012.
Arteta will expect better output from his players against Championship opposition.
The EFL Cup final aside, Arsenal’s domestic form has been near-perfect in recent weeks, recording Premier League victories over Tottenham, Chelsea, Brighton and Everton to move nine points clear of Man City at the summit.
Gabriel Martinelli has more goal involvements than any other player in the FA Cup this season from the third round onwards, with four goals and an assist, with each of his last six goal involvements in the competition coming against lower-league opponents.
That includes setting up Noni Madueke’s opener in their 2–1 win at Mansfield Town in the fifth round, with Eberechi Eze netting the winner following Will Evans’ early second-half equaliser.
Arsenal will be without Eze for this match, however, with the Gunners’ number 10 withdrawing from international duty due to a lower-leg injury that is set to keep him out for most of April.
Madueke, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka also failed to feature for England in March and are currently being assessed. Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel and William Saliba are all in a similar boat.
Right-back Mads Roerslev is the only long-term absentee for Southampton, while doubts remain over Léo Scienza, Welington and Jay Robinson as the trio prepare for late fitness tests.
Southampton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Southampton and Arsenal were at opposite ends of the Premier League table last term, with the Gunners sat second behind title winners Liverpool and Saints collecting just 12 points, as they finished rock bottom and made an immediate return to the Championship.
Unsurprisingly, Arsenal were victorious in both meetings, winning 3–1 at the Emirates with goals from Kai Havertz, Martinelli and Saka, after Cameron Archer had given Southampton an early second-half lead.
Arsenal left it late to claim victory in their last trip to St. Mary’s, however, with Ødegaard‘s 90th-minute strike sealing a 2–1 win on the final day of the season after Kieran Tierney and Ross Stewart had exchanged goals either side of half-time.
Southampton vs Arsenal Prediction
With Arsenal sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League and still on course for a treble this season, the Opta supercomputer pits them as heavy favourites to win this FA Cup tie.
Of 10,000 pre-match simulations, 78.1% resulted in an Arsenal win, and they’ll also be given another 30 minutes to claim victory if the game is level after normal time, with no replays at this stage of the competition.
Southampton’s slim chances of victory stand at just 9.5% despite their strong home form, while there’s a 12.3% likelihood the two sides will be level after 90 minutes.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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