When it comes to the NFL Draft, there are two camps: the analytics guys and the “gut” guys. Those who crunch the numbers to evaluate prospects and predict draft picks. And those who use the tape and their intuition. There’s no right or wrong approach, though the best scenario is to blend both. The draft is art, not science.
For those in the analytics camp, ESPN recently released its yearly “Draft Day Predictor.” Offering percentage chances of where the top prospects could be selected. What does it predict the Steelers will do with their first-round pick?
We’ll break it down into two camps. The highest percentage given to any individual first-round prospect and the highest team ranking compared to the rest of the list.
Highest Percentage To Be Steelers’ First Round Pick
Ty Simpson/QB Alabama: 11.5 percent
Dillon Thieneman/S Oregon: 7.5 percent
Omar Cooper Jr./WR Indiana: 6 percent
Kadyn Proctor/OL Alabama: 6 percent
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren/S Toledo: 5.75 percent
Avieon Terrell/CB Clemson: 5.5 percent
Vega Ioane/OG Penn State: 4.5 percent
Given Pittsburgh’s need at quarterback, it’s no surprise to see Simpson atop the list. Overtly, the Steelers have shown little interest in him. Pittsburgh didn’t send any decision-makers to his Pro Day and Simpson’s known list of visits doesn’t include Pittsburgh.
Thieneman slides in second on the list. An athletic do-it-all safety who played more free safety at Purdue and closer to the line of scrimmage at Oregon, he would fill a long-term need at the position. Cooper would become the team’s immediate No. 3. Neither player has come in for a pre-draft visit, but Cooper has a connection to new wide receivers coach Adam Henry. The two worked together at Indiana during Cooper’s freshman 2022 season.
Proctor is a high-upside behemoth of a lineman. A left tackle in college, he could slide inside to guard in Pittsburgh. McNeil-Warren is well-built and highly productive, though Pittsburgh hasn’t used a first-round pick on a non-Power 4 player since Miami (OH) QB Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Terrell has bloodlines and is physical, while Ioane is a plug-and-play guard. It’s surprising his percentage is this low.
Players between 3-4 percent were: Utah OL Caleb Lomu, Miami (FL) EDGE Akheem Mesidor, Clemson DL Peter Woods, Clemson OT Blake Miller, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, and Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq.
Highest Team Rank To Be Steelers First Round Pick
Ty Simpson: 2nd (Jets/16, 1st)
Dillon Thieneman: 3rd (Vikings/18 1st, Panthers/19 2nd)
Omar Cooper Jr.: 3rd (Vikings/18 1st, Panthers/19 2nd)
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: 4th (Bears/25 1st, Eagles/23 2nd, Bills/26 3rd)
Kadyn Proctor: 5th (Eagles/23 1st, Lions/17 2nd, Browns/24 3rd, Cowboys/20 4th)
Pittsburgh did not grab the top spot for any first-round candidate. Simpson came closest, but the Steelers trailed the New York Jets by a tiny margin. Pittsburgh was on the podium for Thieneman and Cooper, trailing the Minnesota Vikings and the Carolina Panthers in each case. McNeil-Warren and Proctor round out the list, though Pittsburgh selects ahead of all three teams for McNeil-Warren and is third for Proctor.
How much does this matter? Like anything draft-related, take it with a grain of salt. Still, it’s always fun to comb through the list and get a sense of where 2026’s most notable prospects are projected to land and their general draft stock. One of the above names could become Pittsburgh’s first pick later this month.
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