Will the Pittsburgh Steelers be able to get their hands on a true first-round prospect in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft? With the No. 21 selection in the first round, the answer is probably not.
“There’s a difference between going in Round 1 and being graded in Round 1,” ESPN’s Matt Miller wrote. “The average draft class has roughly 15 players who are deemed ‘first-round talents’…my own guideline is whether a player would have been a first-rounder in each of the past five classes.
“I gave only 13 first-round grades in the 2025 class, the lowest number I had awarded at the time. But the 2026 class actually ended with fewer — only 12. For context, the final list in 2024 had 18 names on it, and the 2023 list had 20.”
Let that sink in—just 12 of this year’s prospects would have been first-rounders over the last five years. With the Steelers selecting at No. 21, they have some decisions to make. The average class has 15. The last two times the Steelers picked in the top 15 came in 2023 and 2019—trading up on both occasions to get there. They haven’t naturally had a top-15 pick since 2014.
All that to say, the Steelers rarely get the chance to draft a true first-round, blue-chip talent. They have to hope one falls to them, trade up, or settle for the next tier of players. With 12 picks in hand for the 2026 draft, this would be the perfect opportunity to trade up for one.
Here are the 12 first-rounders that Miller identified on his final big board.
– QB Fernando Mendoza/Indiana
– RB Jeremiyah Love/Notre Dame
– WR Makai Lemon/USC
– WR Carnell Tate/Ohio State
– TE Kenyon Sadiq/Oregon
– OT Francis Mauigoa/Miami (FL)
– EDGE David Bailey/Texas Tech
– ILB Arvell Reese/Ohio State
– ILB Sonny Styles/Ohio State
– CB Jermod McCoy/Tennessee
– CB Mansoor Delane/LSU
– S Caleb Downs/Ohio State
Will any of those players be available when the Steelers are on the clock at No. 21? Maybe Sadiq or McCoy slips through the cracks. But would the Steelers make either of those players their first-round selection at what would be considered luxury positions on the current roster?
I floated the idea of trading up for Caleb Downs in my first mock draft, and I still don’t hate that idea. But I also wouldn’t be opposed to staying put and picking up somebody like Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman, if available.
If teams aren’t willing to trade 2027 capital to move up in 2026, then the Steelers will almost certainly need to move up once or twice in the upcoming draft. There simply isn’t room for 12 rookies on the roster. Acquiring a blue-chip talent at WR, ILB, or S in the first round is worth a hard look in what is otherwise considered a fairly weak draft class.
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