We’re in the home stretch of the Premier League season, but there’s so much work to do inside and outside of England for the clubs currently chasing the title.
MORE —Premier League fixtures & results | Current table
Cup wins and losses have simplified the schedules of both title race leaders Arsenal and chasers Manchester City, as the Gunners are out of the FA Cup while Man City have exited the Champions League ahead of a big match betweens Nos. 1 and 2 at the Etihad Stadium on April 19.
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Arsenal have been on pace for 83-86 points this season and it may be possible that mid-80s is set to become the new norm for a champion of the deepest top division the football world’s seen in its celebrated history. Winners with 90+ point totals became more normal over the past decade, but the depth of competition is so strong that the three centurions (Chelsea once, Man City twice) of the past decade or so already feel like outliers.
Premier League title race — Fixtures list changes give hope to Man City
For much of the year, this part of the fixture list was going to be a nightmare for Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s men were set to return to the international break for an FA Cup quarterfinal and a pair of Champions League quarterfinal legs dropped around Premier League matches with Chelsea and Arsenal.
Yet City lost to Real Madrid in the Round of 16 and came back to England after the break with a thumping of Liverpool in the League Cup. Now Guardiola and assistant Pep Ljinders will gear up for Chelsea and Arsenal with a full week’s preparation between matches while Arsenal tangle with Sporting Lisbon home and away plus scrap with Bournemouth in the league before their big meeting with City at the Etihad.
However, City will still have more league fixture congestion — at least in a sense — than Arsenal because of the Gunners’ FA Cup exit. Arsenal have already played a rescheduled FA Cup game while there are unannounced kickoff dates for City’s matches with Crystal Palace and Burnley. There’s also the matter of City’s fixture with Bournemouth should they reach the FA Cup Final. Arsenal should not have any further Premier League fixture changes.
Arsenal remaining schedule
*if necessary
April 7 at Sporting Lisbon, Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg
April 11 vs Bournemouth
April 15 vs Sporting Lisbon, Champions League quarterfinal 2nd leg
April 19 at Manchester City
April 25 vs Newcastle United
*April 28-29 Champions League semifinal 1st leg
May 2 vs Fulham
*May 5-6 Champions League semifinal 2nd leg
May 9 at West Ham United
May 17 vs Burnley
May 24 at Crystal Palace
*May 30 Champions League Final
Man City remaining schedule
*if necessary
#will/could be rescheduled
#March 21 vs Crystal Palace — to be rescheduled
April 12 at Chelsea
April 19 vs Arsenal
April 25 vs TBD opponent at Wembley Stadium, FA Cup semifinals
April 26 at Burnley#
May 2 at Everton
May 9 vs Brentford
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 at Bournemouth#
May 24 vs Aston Villa
Premier League title race projected point totals
Arsenal — 87 points
Man City — 83 points
Arsenal’s nine-point lead could sink to three if Man City wins its match-in-hand and the visit from the Gunners. That would still mean City winning out and Arsenal losing another match (There’s a seven-goal gap in goal differential that would be amended by at least four in this scenario given minimum one-goal games in City’s win over Palace, a presumed win over the Gunners, and the unknown Arsenal loss). All of that is reasonable, but can City avoid another loss or draw? Maybe, but remember their own fixture congestion will see most of their remaining non-Arsenal opponents have less surrounding games than City.