Fernando Mendoza continues to generate attention as one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. While his upside is evident, evaluators have identified a key concern that could impact his transition to the professional level.
Mendoza has impressed with his arm talent and ability to extend plays, showing flashes of high-level production during his collegiate career. His mobility and willingness to push the ball downfield have made him a dynamic presence under center.
Las Vegas Raiders, Fernando Mendoza, NFL
Fernando Mendoza participates in Indiana University’s Pro Day at Mellencamp Pavilion on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
However, one of the primary concerns surrounding his game is the amount of contact he absorbs. His tendency to hold onto the ball and remain in plays longer than necessary has led to increased exposure to hits from opposing defenses.
At the NFL level, that style of play can present significant challenges, as defenders are faster and more physical. Quarterbacks who consistently take hits often face durability issues, which can affect both performance and availability over time.
ESPN’s NFL Analysis Points Out Major Fernando Mendoza Concern Ahead of Draft
Las Vegas Raiders, Fernando Mendoza, Indiana Hoosiers
Jan 1, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) looks to pass against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
As it stands, there’s one concern surrounding Mendoza ahead of the 2026 Draft. This is detailed more in an analysis by Bill Connelly for ESPN.
Why he might fail: He’s going to take a lot of hits. Mendoza’s ability to learn from mistakes was otherworldly, but when a team was able to pressure him, it could surprise him a bit.
The national average for the ratio of sacks to pressures was 17.2% in 2024-25 — meaning, basically one in six pressures turned into sacks on average — but Mendoza far exceeded that (in a bad way) both years. His ratio was 25.3% as he took 41 sacks at Cal in 2024, and though he was protected far better at Indiana in 2025 (his pressure rate fell from 38.4% to 28.3%), he still took 25 sacks with a 22.5% sacks-to-pressures ratio.
And for all the stats that got better down the stretch, this one didn’t: In his final seven games of 2025, he was sacked 18 times (a massive 10.4% sack rate) with a 30.5% sacks-to-pressures ratio. This is important because while your college stats don’t always follow you to the NFL — we can generally say that you won’ttop your college rate stats, but we can’t say how close you will get to them — that sacks-to-pressures ratio is pretty sticky. It follows you more than most stats do.
Developing quicker decision-making and improving pocket awareness will be critical areas for Mendoza as he prepares for the next level. Reducing unnecessary contact while maintaining his playmaking ability could determine how successfully he adapts to the speed of the NFL.
As draft day approaches, teams will weigh Mendoza’s upside against the risks tied to his playing style. His ability to adjust and protect himself could ultimately shape his long-term outlook as a professional quarterback.