Arsenal fans of a particularly fatalistic persuasion would be well advised to look away now.
The numbers have been crunched, and they suggest ominous times ahead for Mikel Arteta’s Gunners as they approach the most crucial juncture of the 2025/26 campaign.
On the one hand, you can write off Arsenal’s 2-1 FA Cup defeat to Southampton as an aberration. A heavily rotated side, hungover from the international break, away to a bang-in-form and well-up-for-it Championship side. These things happen. It was their first defeat to a side outside the Premier League’s top five in any competition all season.
No need to panic. Two cup exits in as many games has been painful, no doubt, but Arsenal remain in a strong position. Home straight with a nine-point lead at the summit of the Premier League table. A plum draw of Sporting in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Sod the cups. Back in August, every card-carrying Gooner would have bitten your hand off to be in this position on Easter weekend. OPTA still give Arteta’s men a 97.29% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy next month. The data firm still rate them as the best side in Europe. Everything they’ve been working towards for the past five years is finally within their grasp.
Just breathe. Those who worship at the altar of OPTA can put their faith in the numbers and trust that everything will be alright in the end.
But what’s this? OPTA’s Tom Ede has taken a look back at Arsenal’s results in the Arteta era, month by month, and found a concerning trend. Maybe the defeat at St. Mary’s was no anomaly; maybe it was just the latest example of this Arsenal losing their nerve when the pressure really starts to ramp up.
April is (remains) the only month the #Arsenal have failed to win at least half of their games under Mikel Arteta pic.twitter.com/1V2kLdaulo
— Tom Ede (@TomEde1) April 4, 2026
Abort the faith in numbers. Don’t listen to the data nerds. We’re trusting the process now.
You look at the above, with Arteta’s Arsenal historically performing nowhere near as well in April as they do in September, and wonder if that factors into their predicted table algorithm. Is there a formula for expected bottle? xB?
Arteta’s Arsenal have historically produced a win percentage of just 41% in the month of April. Maintain that average this time around and their Champions League and Premier League title hopes could be left in tatters. Alongside the double-header against Sporting, Arsenal have Bournemouth (unbeaten in 11), Manchester City and perennial bogey team Newcastle to come before the month is out. Gulp.
In mitigation, it’s only natural that the win ratio dips a bit when tougher fixtures come in Europe. Last year, Arteta’s men beat Real Madrid home and away in April before losing the first leg to PSG. They won two of five games in the league, dropping points to Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace, but the title had gone and their focus was on Europe.
The season before, Arsenal drew at home and lost away to Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarters but maintained a decent pace in the Premier League, winning five of six. A 2-0 home defeat to Unai Emery’s Aston Villa ultimately cost them the title, though.
It was the 2022/23 season in which Arsenal’s title charge really hit the rocks in April. They won a seventh successive league game with a resounding 4-1 victory over Leeds on April Fool’s Day, only to fail to win their next four. Their hopes of the title were blown to smithereens in a 4-1 loss at the Etihad that followed draws against Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton.
Even back in 2021/22, when Arsenal first made great strides under Arteta, they allowed themselves to be beaten to Champions League qualification by Antonio Conte’s Spurs after losing three on the bounce in April. Crystal Palace, Brighton, Southampton. Why’s it always Southampton?
It’s the contrast to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City juggernaut that’s particularly worrisome. City won all five league outings in April 2023, eventually extending their winning run to 12 matches. They won five of five the following year too, pipping Arsenal to the title by two points by winning their last nine matches.
Guardiola has won the title in 13 of his 17 seasons as a manager and triumphed in every title race he’s ever been involved in. His teams – if they’re still in the mix – tend to be relentless come the final furlongs, and their recent victories against Arsenal and Liverpool hint they’re gearing up for something similar in 2025/26.
Arsenal’s race isn’t just against City, though. They’re up against their own April demons. Shake off the ghosts of collapses past, or risk watching history replay itself in cruel, familiar fashion.
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