New York Jets, New England Patriots
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A snapshot from a matchup between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.
From division rivals to trade partners?
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell predicted that the New York Jets and the New England Patriots could strike a deal on draft day in his most recent mock draft.
New York Jets receive: a 2026 first-round pick (No. 31 overall), a 2026 second-round pick (No. 63 overall), and a 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 131 overall)
New England Patriots receive: a 2026 second-round pick (No. 33 overall) and another 2026 second-round pick (No. 44 overall)
“This would be a relatively lopsided trade by the Johnson chart, but there are two reasons the Patriots would demand a premium to move down two picks here. One is the intra-division tax, as the Patriots probably won’t want to help the rival Jets add to their roster. The other relates to fifth-year-option flexibility. By trading out of the first round, the Patriots would lose the ability to sign their pick to a fifth-year option, which offers meaningful upside if you hit on your selection. Every general manager believes that they will nail their picks, so missing out on one extra year of cost control makes that two-pick swap more important for the Patriots than it might seem,” Barnwell wrote.
Draft Value Chart Assessment
According to the NFL draft value chart, the combo of the Jets second round picks is worth 1,040 points. The Patriots’ package of picks would be worth 917 points.
That is 123 points different. Which is the equivalent of a late third-round pick. Interestingly, New England has a draft choice they could add, which would make this a near-even swap: the No. 95 overall pick in the third round.
However, Barnwell explained there is an extra tax because the Jets and Patriots are AFC East divisional rivals. If that tax is true, then the Jets should pursue the No. 32 overall pick instead from the Seattle Seahawks to avoid that increase. Plus, that trade would be even cheaper, considering the Jets would only be moving up one spot versus two spots with New England.
Jets’ Motivation for Pulling off a Move Like This
“The Jets would accomplish two things with this trade up. One would be getting ahead of the Seahawks for a cornerback, a position of need for Aaron Glenn. Brandon Stephens was a major liability in his first season with New York, while Nahshon Wright was signed to only a one-year contract this offseason,” Barnwell wrote.
“The other would be getting ahead of teams that might trade into pick No. 32 to leapfrog the Jets at No. 33, which would impact the many needs the Jets have across their roster. New York shouldn’t be trading up very often, given its need for young talent, but if it has one player left in a tier at a position it really values, moving up would lock in that player,” Barnwell explained.
On the surface, the cornerback position doesn’t scream a need for the Jets. When you look deeper, it very much is.
All of these cornerbacks on the roster aren’t proven, long-term guys. A year from now, the Jets could be scrambling to find a cornerback. The biggest misconception with the draft process is thinking oh wow, I have an immediate need right now, I have to fill that right now.
The draft isn’t about filling needs right now; it’s thinking multiple steps down the line. You aren’t signing these rookies to one-year contracts; they’re multi-year commitments. These decisions are being made with one foot in the present and one foot in the future.