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Breer: ‘Don’t Be Surprised’ If Just Two QBs Are Taken Over First Three Rounds

The quarterback class in the 2026 NFL Draft has largely been considered underwhelming since the end of the 2025 season, with just Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson finding themselves in the first-round discussion.

Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner and the star of the undefeated national champion Hoosiers, is a lock to land No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders, but after that the class feels very 2022-like.

That year, just one quarterback went in the first round, that being Pitt’s Kenny Pickett — unfortunately — to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Outside of Pickett, just three other quarterbacks went in the first two days — Desmond Ridder to Atlanta, Malik Willis to Tennessee and Matt Corral to Carolina, all in the third round.

This class is a bit better than that 2022 class, but for Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, who appeared on The McShay Show Wednesday with longtime NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay, he believes it will be a long wait for most quarterbacks in the draft.

“So I’ve had to think some about this. I would say don’t be surprised if there are only two quarterbacks…off the board as we go into Day 3,” Breer said. ““I think obviously Mendoza, the die is cast, we know that he’s the first pick. I think Simpson goes somewhere in the second round.

“And I think that that could be it until you get to the fourth round.”

There’s no debate Mendoza is the No. 1 overall pick. He’s going to be viewed as the Raiders’ savior long-term, even after they signed Kirk Cousins last week to presumably start early and give Mendoza time to settle in.

As for Simpson, there’s a debate about him being a first-round quarterback. He’s been connected to teams like the New York Jets at No. 16, and the Steelers at No. 21 overall. But Breer sees him landing in the second round.

After that, the NFL insider wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another quarterback taken until the fourth round, leaving names like Penn State’s Drew Allar, Miami (FL)’s Carson Beck, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Arkansas’ Taylen Green, and even North Dakota State’s Cole Payton on the board into Day 3.

The Steelers have a need at quarterback as they await word from 42-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The franchise does believe greatly in second-year pro Will Howard, a sixth-round pick a year ago with no NFL snaps, not even in preseason. But the Steelers have been connected to names like Beck and Payton throughout the pre-draft process.

With three third-round picks, that seems like the sweet spot to take a quarterback. But Breer thinks they could wait until Day 3 based on his belief that just two QBs will be selected in the first two days.

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