Patrick Mahomes watches from the sideline.
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Patrick Mahomes could not believe the Bill Belichick Hall of Fame vote.
The Kansas City Chiefs have delivered some conflicting messages on whether quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be ready to start the season, but oddsmakers seem to have more confidence in his return.
Mahomes has spent the offseason rehabbing from a complicated knee injury that cut short his 2025 season just before the team was officially eliminated from the playoffs. While there is no official word on whether he’ll be ready for the season opener, Mahomes is facing an optimistic prediction when it comes to the MVP race.
Patrick Mahomes Among MVP Frontrunners Yet Again
Though Mahomes fell out of the 2025 MVP race long before his injury, Fox Sports noted that he will once again be among the frontrunners when the next season starts. The early odds show that Mahomes has the third-best odds, behind two other recent winners — Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
“Mahomes won MVP in 2018 and again in 2022,” the report noted. “He received 41 first-place votes the first time around (Drew Brees received the other nine), throwing 50 touchdowns that season, tied for second-most in a single season all time. In 2022, he got 48 first-place votes. Allen and Jalen Hurts each received one first-place vote.”
Mahomes did get a boost with the return of tight end Travis Kelce, one of his favorite targets. Kelce briefly contemplated retirement before deciding to return in 2026, signing a three-year contract.
The MVP oddsmakers don’t have as much faith in last year’s winner, placing Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford near the bottom of the list.
Patrick Mahomes Still Rehabbing
Mahomes could see his MVP odds drop if he’s not able to start the season. He underwent surgery immediately following the injury in December, but the complicated nature of the torn ACL and LCL could make his rehab more complicated than the typical ACL tear.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said he wouldn’t bet against Mahomes returning in time for the season opener, but team owner Clark Hunt was a bit more reserved in his prediction. Hunt said he wasn’t sure if the NFL would schedule the Chiefs against the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks to start the year, owing mainly to the uncertainty surrounding Mahomes.
Reporter Pete Sweeney of the Kansas City Star believes it will be hard to tell, noting that Mahomes has a history of returning quickly from injuries, but not ones as complicated as this.
“It’s difficult to answer because all we have to go off of are less-serious injuries,” Sweeney wrote. In 2019, Mahomes returned from a dislocated knee after two absences. During the 2020 playoffs, he guided the Chiefs to the Super Bowl with turf toe, then won it in 2022 with a high-ankle sprain.”
The Chiefs made a big investment in their quarterback depth this offseason, trading for Justin Fields as the No. 2 to Mahomes. Sweeney noted that the Chiefs would feel confident starting the season with the former Chicago Bears first-rounder if Mahomes isn’t ready yet.
“If he can’t go to start the season, the Chiefs have said they feel good about Justin Fields — but I’m with Reid. Answer: I wouldn’t bet against Mahomes, either,” Sweeney wrote.