The NFL draft is less than two weeks away. Pro days have concluded. Teams are wrapping up their final pre-draft visits with prospects. Now boards are being set. What fans and media have been trying to do for some time is determine what the Chicago Bears have planned. This is one of the teams that could go in almost any direction. After weeks of believing the team would focus on the defensive line, insiders have begun shifting to other positions based on what they’ve heard. People can’t pin down what general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Ben Johnson want to do.
That is because the real answer is much simpler. SM reached out to people close to the organization, seeking any sort of clarity on what the thinking is inside the building. The reply I got back was short and more than a little noteworthy.
“If they can get out of round one, they will. The people I talk to don’t like this draft early.”
It sure sounds like the Bears’ primary goal is trading down from the 25th pick. This seems to confirm the rumors going through draft circles that there isn’t much of a difference seen between players who will be picked in the 20s and 30s and those picked in the 40s. In such a situation, the smart thing to do is trade down, accumulate assets, and pinpoint value later on.
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The Chicago Bears know they’re not one player away.
Salary cap issues this offseason forced them to make some tough roster decisions. D.J. Moore was traded. Tremaine Edmunds was cut. Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, and Nahshon Wright all left in free agency. The only clear starters they brought in were safety Coby Bryant and linebacker Devin Bush. If you look at their depth chart as things stand, you could argue they have at least three starting jobs unaddressed.
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Safety
Linebacker
Left tackle
That is without mentioning their situation at edge rusher. Montez Sweat and Austin Booker are the only two viable ones on the roster. Suffice to say, the Bears have several spots that could use help, and currently have just seven picks in this draft.
That isn’t a great margin of error. Moving down for a couple of extra picks would give them some wiggle room, adding some opportunities to land good players. It is a tried-and-true tactic in the draft, provided one can pull it off. That will be the problem. For the Bears to move down, they need two things. One is a team, or two wanting to come up the board, and the other is a player they can dangle as bait. If what people believe about this draft is true, then that second part is a big problem.
Poles is no stranger to this sort of work.
Trading out of the 1st round was something he saw the Kansas City Chiefs do in 2016 firsthand as their director of college scouting. The team flipped the 28th overall pick and a 7th rounder to the San Francisco 49ers for the 37th pick, a 4th round pick, and a 6th round pick. Despite that, they still managed to land Chris Jones in the 2nd round and Tyreek Hill in the 5th round. As always, it all depends on how well you trust your board. We already know Poles isn’t afraid to move down in the 1st. He did it twice in 2023, going from #1 overall to #10. The idea that going from #25 to out of the 1st is much less intimidating.
Can the Chicago Bears find a buyer? That is the challenge facing them. Typically, teams that come up in the bottom of the 1st round are looking for one of three things: a quarterback, an offensive weapon, or an offensive lineman. It is noteworthy that multiple teams picking after the Bears need line help. That might compel a team at the top of the 2nd to jump ahead of them, provided the right player is available. We’ll likely get answers to this question once the Bears go on the clock.