The mood among the Arsenal fanbase does not reflect the fact that their team is still six points clear at the top of the Premier League and on the cusp of a Champions League semi-final. Eight nights ago, Kai Havertz's stoppage time winner at Estádio José Alvalade saw the Gunners defeat Sporting CP 1-0 in the first leg of this quarter-final clash.
This leaves Mikel Arteta's team in a commanding position to progress through to a last four date with Atlético Madrid given that, when Arsenal do win the first leg of a European tie on the road, they almost always progress.
Arsenal's European ties when winning the first leg away
Champions League last 16 2025: PSV Eindhoven 1-7 Arsenal. Won 9-3 on aggregate.
Europa League last 16 2021: Olympiacos 1-3 Arsenal. Won 3-2 on aggregate.
Europa League last 32 2020: Olympiacos 0-1 Arsenal. Lost 2-2 on away goals after extra time.
Europa League last 16 2018: AC Milan 0-2 Arsenal. Won 5-1 on aggregate.
Europa League last 32 2018: Östersund 0-3 Arsenal. Won 4-2 on aggregate.
Champions League play-offs 2013: Fenerbahçe 0-3 Arsenal. Won 5-0 on aggregate.
Champions League play-offs 2009: Celtic 0-2 Arsenal. Won 5-1 on aggregate.
Champions League play-offs 2008: Twente 0-2 Arsenal. Won 6-0 on aggregate.
Champions League play-offs 2007: Sparta Prague 0-2 Arsenal. Won 5-0 on aggregate.
Champions League play-offs 2006: Dinamo Zagreb 0-2 Arsenal. Won 5-1 on aggregate.
Champions League last 16 2006: Real Madrid 0-1 Arsenal. Won 1-0 on aggregate.
Champions League last 16 2004: Celta Vigo 2-3 Arsenal. Won 5-2 on aggregate.
Cup Winners' Cup second round 1994: Brøndby 1-2 Arsenal. Won 4-3 on aggregate.
Cup Winners' Cup first round 1994: Omonia 1-3 Arsenal. Won 6-1 on aggregate.
Cup Winners' Cup first round 1993: Odense 1-2 Arsenal. Won 3-2 on aggregate.
UEFA Cup first round 1981: Panathinaikos 0-2 Arsenal. Won 3-0 on aggregate.
European Cup second round 1971: Grasshopper 0-2 Arsenal. Won 5-0 on aggregate.
European Cup first round 1971: Strømsgodset 1-3 Arsenal. Won 7-1 on aggregate.
Inter-Cities Fairs Cup quarter-final 1970: Dinamo Bacău 0-2 Arsenal. Won 9-1 on aggregate.
Inter-Cities Fairs Cup first round 1963: Stævnet 1-7 Arsenal. Won 9-4 on aggregate.
Last Tuesday was the 21st occasion that Arsenal have won the first leg of a European knockout tie away from home, since debuting in UEFA competition 63 years ago. Of the previous 20 times this has happened, the Gunners have progressed through 19 times, including all ten in the Champions League or European Cup.
The sole exception to this came very early on in Mikel Arteta's tenure. In a Europa League last 32 encounter, Alexandre Lacazette was the only scorer at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, but Olympiacos sprung a major surprise in North London a week later; Youssef El-Arabi headed home the winner in injury time at the end of extra time, prevailing on away goals. Anyone in attendance at the Emirates that night might just fear a sense of déjà vu.
So, what chance is there actually of Sporting ending Arsenal's European aspirations? Well, all the statistics suggest it is not very likely. Under Arteta, the Gunners have won 14 of 17 Champions League home games, including all five this season, their sole defeat coming at the hands of PSG.
As for Sporting, they've only progressed through one of 14 European ties when beaten in the first leg at home, this coming in Europa League qualifying against Brøndby 15 years ago. Rui Borges' side have won just one of their last eight European away matches, losing five, while Portuguese clubs in general have lost each of the last nine Champions League quarter-finals they've been involved in.
Thus, everything is weighted in Arsenal's favour, but few Gooners will be sitting comfortably when this huge second leg gets underway.
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