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Arsenal’s lead at the Premier League summit has been cut from nine points to six following last weekend’s disappointing home defeat to Bournemouth and Manchester City’s convincing victory over Chelsea. With City still having a game in hand, the narrative suggests the title race could be slipping away from the Gunners.
The two sides meet at the Etihad on Sunday in what could be a defining moment for the championship. Many are already talking about City’s potential comeback as an inevitability, given their historical strength in the final stretch of seasons.
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The case for optimism
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However, [according to Opta Analyst](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/apr/17/arsenal-premier-league-manchester-city-favourites-leaders), there are several compelling reasons why Arsenal supporters should remain confident about their title chances.
First, winning seven games in a row is an incredibly difficult task, even for Pep Guardiola’s side. Across the last two seasons, City’s longest Premier League winning streak stands at just six matches. This is not the relentless, metronomic City of previous campaigns – they remain formidable but are not infallible.
Arsenal’s record in big games under Mikel Arteta also provides encouragement. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last five Premier League meetings with City, having won two and drawn three after losing the previous 12 encounters. Across the last three and a half seasons, Arsenal have lost fewer matches against current top-six sides than any of their rivals.
Statistical backing remains strong
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The run-in also appears to favour Arsenal. Using opponent strength ratings, the north London side faces an average opponent rating of 90.4 compared to City’s 92.0. Arsenal have the fourth-easiest remaining fixtures in the league, with three of their final matches at home.
Despite criticism of their creativity from open play, Arsenal’s underlying numbers remain impressive. They still boast the best defence in the country, conceding less than one expected goal per game in 2026. The Gunners have “won” the expected goals battle in 11 of their 13 league games this year.
Most tellingly, the Opta supercomputer still backs Arsenal strongly. After running 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures, the model predicts Arsenal will win the title in 87% of scenarios. The bookmakers also continue to make them favourites.
While momentum is currently with City and many expect an Arsenal collapse, the fundamentals of their title challenge remain robust. Sunday’s clash at the Etihad represents an opportunity rather than just a threat – a victory would virtually seal the championship for Arteta’s side.