In most circles, people are considering that the worst is what will happen to Arsenal on Sunday, April 19.It is for good reason. When everything was going the way of the Gunners in the meeting between these two teams in March, they lost 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final. Abdukodir Khusanov cleverly shut down Viktor Gyokeres with his aggression and speed down the channels while Kai Havertz hardly helped as a connective presence in the front two. A fast first 15 minutes faded quickly, and City came out confidently after the restart, rewarding their efforts with a brace from Nico O’Reilly.
Since then, the Citizens have defeated Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup quarterfinals and Chelsea 3-0 in the Premier League. On the other hand, Arsenal appear to be losing composure at the wrong time. A 2-1 defeat to Southampton signalled successive defeats for the first time all season, and a 2-1 loss against Bournemouth allowed the chasers to cut the gap at the top of the table down to six points.
So, how could things pan out at the Etihad Stadium? And how much will it matter for the run-in?
The bear case
Since a 2-0 triumph over Everton in the middle of March, Arsenal have won just one of their five fixtures in all competitions. That was a last gasp getaway in Lisbon where Havertz had come off the bench to bag himself the only goal of the game against Sporting. A goalless stalemate followed at the Emirates Stadium in midweek, and Arsenal are through to the final four of the Champions League.
The 180 minutes of action was far from awe inspiring, failing to restore confidence in the quality of the club as an attacking unit. But it could also take away from the performance on Sunday, April 19.
Noni Madueke suffered another scare to his fitness as he limped off the field with a knock to his knee in midweek. Bukayo Saka is out of contention, while time will tell if Martin Odegaard, Jurrien Timber or Riccardo Calafiori come into the matchday squad after team training on Saturday.
Declan Rice, a leader for the group, has gone through the wars physically. At a time when the squad should have its most important players performing at their peak, players feel like they are flagging.
Throw in the recent fragilities in buildup, the lack of invention without Eberechi Eze, and the psychology of never hurdling this obstacle when something massive is on the line, and the odds are against Arsenal.
From there, the collapse could be comparable to the 2022/23 season that several squad members lived through. From a resurgent West Ham to a competitive Fulham outfit, there are enough stumbling blocks to blotch their record further, while City have a track record of bringing their best in April.
The bull case
For all the doom and gloom, it does not take too much for the Citizens to slip out of the running for the second season on the spin.
Pep Guardiola gave a clear statement on the significance of this showdown. If his men replicate what they executed in the second half at Wembley Stadium, he backs them to take all three points and bring this battle down to the wire. But in his words, if they lose on Sunday, April 19, the race is all over.
Arsenal are stumbling towards the finishing line, but the City surge has come a little later in the calendar than usual. Successive draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham have given the group additional work to do to hunt down the table toppers: despite their game in hand, they only have six more chances after the fixture this week to put points on the board. It may be too much to handle.
While City will be chasing the win, Arsenal are in a position where there is wriggle room to play pragmatically and consolidate at least a point if the flow of the fixture pans out that way. The last two trips to the Etihad Stadium have seen disciplined defensive blocks frustrate the opposition.
When Arsenal have to throw the kitchen sink at their opposition, they tend to struggle under Arteta. However, at this point of the schedule, there is less of a necessity to be so brave. Playing for a single point is not advisable, but it is an outcome that is better for the Gunners in more ways than one.
How much does this matter?
Narratives are often rewritten to align with the way stories end, and we will never know just how much or little the match on Sunday, April 19, shifts the season’s conclusion for both sides. But the discourse around the Carabao Cup final allows us to think about how this question could be answered.
At the time, all possibilities were on the table. People wondered whether a win for Arsenal could completely knock the head on City’s campaign following their exit from the Champions League. Meanwhile, if the Gunners were defeated, debate split two ways: some thought that their season could unravel, while others believed it would be fuel to the fire to get over the line in other competitions.
Wherever one fell with the argument, it was clear symbolic success still resonates with supporters. The 5-1 victory over City at the Emirates Stadium was a standout moment for Arsenal last season, but it is fitting that the result was on home soil in a year when Liverpool were running away with the top spot. The desire remains strong for a statement result— especially against their biggest nemesis.
The trendlines in April are very familiar for both clubs, and the additional challenge of Champions League semi-final clashes with Atletico Madrid might start to swing the odds away from Arsenal.
But they have the power to put an end to the self-fulfilling prophecies proposed about their bottle. If they walk away with a positive result from Manchester, the biggest boost will be for their morale. And in a sport steeped with emotions, that shot of self-confidence could set the sides apart by the end.