Even though Sunday's defeat at the Etihad felt terminal for Arsenal's Premier League title chances, the trophy that they covet and crave so much is still firmly up for grabs. In fact, all the statistical models, the most glamorous of all the models, still make the Gunners title favourites.
Mikel Arteta stated in his pre-match press conference that his team were going to Manchester to win and, well, they actually played like it. Mere seconds after Rayan Cherki had broken the deadlock, Kai Havertz equalised after closing down Gianluigi Donnarumma and tackling him on the line. Erling Haaland was ultimately the match-winner, with the Gunners left to rue missed chances.
Havertz saw a close-range attempt saved, Eberechi Eze's left-footed effort struck the inside of the post and spun to safety before, in injury time, Leandro Trossard's inch-perfect cross was headed over by Havertz.
This means Arsenal remain three points clear at the top, but Pep Guardiola's team have a game in hand, traveling to Turf Moor to take on Burnley on Wednesday night. Thus, if both win all of their remaining games, the title will be decided by goal difference; Arsenal currently have the edge by one.
Despite the fact both have their fate in their own hands, the statisticians still believe that Arsenal are firm favourites. According to Opta, the Gunners still boast a 73% chance of becoming champions, compared to Man City's 23% chance.
They justify this by noting that Arteta's team have easier remaining fixtures, with their last five opponents currently 14th, 12th, 17th, 19th and 13th in the table. The Sky Blues meantime have tricky trips to Everton and Bournemouth still to come, as well as facing Aston Villa on the final day.
Arsenal vs Manchester City: Remaining Premier League fixtures
Date Arsenal's fixtures Manchester City's fixtures
22 & 25 April Newcastle (H) Burnley (A)
2 & 4 May Fulham (H) Everton (A)
9 & 10 May West Ham (A) Brentford (H)
17 May Burnley (H) Bournemouth (A)
Date TBC Crystal Palace (H)
24 May Crystal Palace (A) Aston Villa (H)
Of course, come the final day, Arsenal's opponent Crystal Palace might be preparing for the UEFA Conference League Final, which takes place in Leipzig three days later. Similarly, Man City's final day opposition Aston Villa may well have just been involved in the Europa League Final in İstanbul, so may not be at peak performance either.
All Arteta's team can do is win their five remaining fixtures and hope the Citizens drop points once. That is all it would take. Yes, emphatic victories by heavy scorelines would help were it come down to goal difference, or even goals scored, but first and foremost making the three points secure has to be the priority.
Assuming Man City beat Southampton in the FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley on Saturday evening, which seems likely, they will have to squeeze games against Palace and Bournemouth into the final two mid-weeks of the campaign.
Thus, if Arsenal are able to win, win, win, win and win, this piles the pressure onto Guardiola's team, and that's all they can do from here on out. As Declan Rice himself said "it's not over".
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