Here we go again. Back at it with the nerves and stress of the Premier League tomorrow, with the managers due to meet the press today and give their updates. As Shakespeare once said in Henry V:
> “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more”
It’s a grind right now, eh? But a lot of that has been because of the performances. The City game gave us hope, the Newcastle game gave us more fear, so what will Fulham bring to the table tomorrow?
Well, they’ll be without Sessegnon, who limped off injured in their win against Villa, having scored the goal in the first half. I have just watched the highlights of that game, and Villa certainly created enough chances for it to be at least a draw. So his being out, I guess, is a plus point for us, but so is the fact that Iwobi is out. We have enough things to worry about without having an ex-player cause us all manner of headaches tomorrow evening.
_\*\*Emile Smith Rowe enters the chat\*\*_
Their main man this season, however, has been Harry Wilson, who has 10 Premier League goals to his name and has racked up the second-highest goals vs xG metrics, which means when he gets chances, they tend to be lower quality but higher conversion.
As a team, Fulham sit mid-table for xG, they’re 12th for goals scored, 12th for total volume of shots, 14th for shots on target, 11th for touches in the opponents’ box, and 14th for ‘fast breaks’. By all rights, this is very much a ‘mid-table’ side based on the stats. And yet they find themselves in 10th, and because of this mad Premier League this season, they are just two points off Brighton in sixth position, fighting for a European slot. So last weekend, in hindsight, we could have done with Villa probably winning that game against them, as it might have meant they pretty much know that their chance of Europe is gone. Now they will be looking at this match as one that, if they can pick up a win on our patch, then they have a good chance of hitting that target.
That’s why this is a mad season, because Everton are only just one point behind them, and we’re hoping that on their own patch they can do us a favour against City on Monday night. But Fulham are just as likely to cause an upset as Everton are, which is why Arteta and his players need to be wary.
We’ve had a couple of recent memory slip-ups against Fulham at home, too. Two seasons ago, it was the 2-2 in which we contrived to drop points having been 2-1 up and a man to the good after Bassey was sent off in the 83rd minute. We went one down in one minute, then had two goals on 70 and 72, and when their man was sent off, you’re thinking that we’ll coast to the final whistle. But an 87th-minute goalkeeper mistake from a corner (Ramsdale) cost us three points, and I remember being very grumpy that bank holiday weekend in August, away with friends all weekend.
Two seasons before that, it was Eddie Nketiah rescuing a point for us after they’d scored on 59 minutes, after a Maja penalty was converted. In fact, since Arteta took charge, he’s had two narrow 2-1 wins and two draws against Fulham. We haven’t had it easy against them for seven years. I don’t expect that to start tomorrow.
And in Marco Silva, they do have a tactically fluid manager, who will shift their approach. I suspect we’ll see a side that will build up with a back three, stretch their fullbacks to make the pitch as wide as possible, and see if they can get runners and dribblers disrupting the middle. They rely on the ability of their full-backs, and I seem to recall Antoinee Robinson always has a good game for us in that left-back spot. On the left-hand side, if we had an attacker in any kind of form, I’d fancy them against Castagne, but unfortunately, we don’t, unless Arteta leans into Eze there again. That will be one to discuss tomorrow when we have an update (of sorts) with the team news.
Fulham’s style this season – having read a few articles – is to leverage those full-backs, but also make diagonal passes as two or three runners try to get in behind the opposition defence. They will sit in a compact back five out of possession, then try to spring traps on us. We have to be ready for that.
I hope we are. Arteta pulled Odegaard off in midweek, presumably to protect him for tomorrow, as well as not starting Eze. He gave Saka 20 minutes against Atletico Madrid, having given him 10 minutes against Newcastle, so one would hope that he might be ready to play. The big question is over Kai, but I suspect the club will be cautious, and we will get told he’s not available. That means he’ll most likely turn to Big Vik, who hopefully has a little bit more confidence after a decent performance against Atleti in midweek, as well as a goal, albeit one from the spot.
I don’t expect anything other than a coy Arteta to give nothing away, but I hope that we at least get some word on Timber. It’s getting to the point where I’m wondering if we will ever see him again this season. I really hope so. He is such a key component of that back line and their defensive stability. A fit Timber, along with Big Gabi, Saliba and Calafiori would be huge for these final games.
It is unlikely to be tomorrow, but even having him in the squad would be a big boost, so let’s cross our fingers for some good news today.
And with that, I’ll toddle off for now, with some pre-match thoughts tomorrow. Catch you then.
Laters people.