“We’re still in it,” that was the message Erling Haaland offered to his Manchester City teammates while trying to process the 90 minutes of mayhem which had just unfolded.
After taking a deserved lead at Everton on Monday evening, it seemed to be a question of how many City would rack up. Yet, by the time Haaland dinked the ball over Jordan Pickford in the 83rd minute, he was halving the deficit after watching his team briefly tumble 3–1 down. Jérémy Doku, who opened the scoring with a lovely curling effort off his weaker left foot, would bookend the night with a mirror image goal from his right side.
City escaped with a point from the 3–3 draw, but in the context of the Premier League title race with Arsenal, it was ultimately a case of two dropped. Haaland is mathematically correct in his assertion: City are five points adrift of the Gunners having played one game fewer, but as his manager Pep Guardiola fretted: “It’s not in our hands.”
Opta’s supercomputer is not nearly as optimistic as City’s No. 9.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
Pep Guardiola, Mikel Arteta
Pep Guardiola is aiming to lift his fifth league title in six seasons. | Catherine Ivilll/AMA/Getty Images
Predicted Position Team Current Points Expected Points Title Chances
1. Arsenal 76 82.30 85.24%
2. Man City 71 78.75 14.76%
Arsenal have been Opta’s favorites for months. Even after City wrestled first spot from the Gunners with a win over Burnley in April, the Gunners were given the edge. Now that Mikel Arteta’s side have their destiny back in their own hands once again, their chances have swollen to a whopping 85.24%.
City have to rely upon Arsenal dropping points in at least one of their remaining three fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three opponents the north London outfit have already beaten in the Premier League this season.
The quality of Arsenal’s performance in their 3–0 thumping of Fulham on Saturday suggests that it should be a straightforward run-in, but rarely is soccer ever so simple. There is the intangible avalanche of nerves to consider as these players, who have suffered through three years of second-place finishes, try to end the club’s 22-year wait for top-flight glory. What’s more, none of their upcoming opponents will be as forgiving as a Fulham side struck down by a roster-wide virus.
Guardiola’s challengers can scarcely afford another slip-up. The calendar is working against City, who face four games in the space of 11 days, with an FA Cup final stuffed into the mix for good measure. Guardiola has already ceded the title once this season only to see his side race back into the mix and was in no mood to crown Arsenal champions just yet. “We have games left,” he pointed out on Monday. “We will see what happens.”
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
Predicted Position Team Current Points Predicted Points Qualification Chances
3. Man Utd 64 68.61 100%
4. Liverpool 58 62.77 97.82%
5. Aston Villa 58 62.10 95.94%
6. Bournemouth 52 55.71 3.02%
7. Brighton 50 55.03 2.01%
8. Brentford 51 54.38 1.21%
Manchester United guaranteed Champions League qualification with a victory over Liverpool on Sunday but the Merseyside outfit are odds-on to join their bitter rivals in Europe’s premier club competition regardless.
Aston Villa have endured their own wobbles recently—defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday was a fifth loss from their last eight league games—but are still dining off a blistering sequence of 12 wins from 13 games over the winter weeks. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”
One more win from Liverpool and Villa should be enough to keep Bournemouth at bay, while the hopes of sneaking into the top five for Brighton and Brentford are even more distant. However, sixth place could yet bring the cherry of Champions League qualification.
The Mix for Sixth
Andoni Iraola
Andoni Iraola is manager known for his coaching ability. | Robin Jones/AFC Bournemouth/Getty Images
Predicted Position Team Current Points Predicted Points Chances of Sixth
6. Bournemouth 52 55.71 33.06%
7. Brighton 50 55.03 31.59%
8. Brentford 51 54.38 16.75%
9. Fulham 48 52.39 3.88%
10. Everton 48 52.23 3.25%
11. Chelsea 48 52.14 4.98%
12. Sunderland 47 50.31 0.54%
Should Villa end the campaign in fifth and win the Europa League, their Champions League slot would be bumped down to sixth place. This is where plenty of chaos could reign across the final three matchdays.
There are just four points between Chelsea in 11th and Bournemouth in that coveted sixth spot. Even 12th-placed Sunderland have an outside shot of leaping up the table. Brighton could yet wrestle the position away from the Cherries while Brentford, relegation favorites heading into the campaign, are right in the mix.
However, the Bees’ chances could be complicated by their fixture list. Brentford travel to Liverpool’s Anfield on the final day of season knowing that they need their hosts to finish above Villa to keep the possibility of Champions League soccer heading to the bus stop in Hounslow. There is the confusing scenario of Brentford possibly needing to lose that fixture to ultimately win qualification.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Relegation Battle
Relegation Richy is inevitable. pic.twitter.com/GgiXxewyVy
— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) May 3, 2026
Predicted Position Team Current Points Predicted Points Relegation Chances
14. Crystal Palace 43 47.08 0.09%
15. Leeds 43 46.71 0.12%
16. Nottingham Forest 42 45.99 0.18%
17. Tottenham 37 41.01 22.15%
18. West Ham 36 39.18 77.46%
19. Burnley 20 22.78 100%
20. Wolves 18 21.06 100%
It was a miserable weekend for West Ham. After repeatedly testing the structural integrity of Brentford’s goal frame during a misleading 3–0 defeat on Saturday, Tottenham actually put together a competent performance in victory over a weakened Aston Villa XI.
Nottingham Forest also rung the changes but still managed to comfortably thump Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Monday to move onto 42 points and effectively clear of the drop.
Spurs are only one point above West Ham but have been given such a sizeable advantage thanks to the nature of the two sides’ remaining opponents. While the Hammers host title-chasing Arsenal next weekend, Tottenham take on a Leeds United side who have all but secured their own survival.
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